The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

As the dust settles on Manchester City’s historic treble, attention turns to the opening of the Premier League transfer window and speculation is rife as to which players will be switching allegiances for 2023/24.

As always, this is a busy time for bookmakers. Whilst some, such as Betway, haven’t offered transfer markets for some time, others offer multiple odds as Premier League fans make their predictions for team changes.

To gain the trader’s insight into these markets, SBC reached out to bet365 and Betfair, gaining some exclusive commentary from company respective spokespersons Steve Freeth and Sam Rosbottom.

Reading the Premier League transfer table

Manchester CIty may have claimed their first Champions League trophy, but Newcastle United are also set up for European action next year by securing the fourth spot in the Premier League. 

Meanwhile, West Ham won the first European trophy in several years and Aston Villa secured UEFA Conference League qualification. However, Freeth noted that despite West Ham’s success many Premier League punters are anticipating the departure of Declan Rice. SBC News The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

“ Rice’s future has been one that has dominated the headlines for a number of months now and it had been thought it was a matter of time before he left West Ham,” he said.

“However, there was a lot of sentimental money around for him to stay in East London after the Europa League Conference Final (12/1 into 9/2) but David Sullivan’s post match comments stopped that gamble in its tracks.

“Many are expecting him to stay in the capital, with Arsenal continuing to be the most popular destination by some way. He was a 9/4 poke to be a Gunner at the end of the window back in March and the support remains strong, even at 1/6, with the North London club seemingly in pole position.”

Additionally, if Betfair and bet365’s assessments are anything to go by it may be worth it for trading teams to keep their eyes on James Maddison, Mason Mount and Harvey Barnes. 

Murmurings around these players have been compound not just by West Ham and Villa’s European prospects – and Chelsea’s lack thereof – but also by the shock relegation of Leeds United, Leicester City and Southampton from the Premier League.

“We’re expecting another busy summer for the transfer markets, and given the three teams that have been relegated, we’re expecting some fire sales,” Rosbottom remarked.

“Looking at the players heading to the Championship that could be snapped up by Premier League teams, we can’t split where Harvey Barnes will end up, it looks as though he will be playing European football next season, with both West Ham and Aston Villa joint favourites at 6/4 to sign him.

“Another highly sought after player from Championship bound Leicester City, is James Maddison. His next club has been a popular market for the punters, and as things stand, Newcastle are leading the way at 4/9, we have seen money come in for him to go to Spurs, who are 10/3, but overall the punters believe he’s heading to play Champions League football in the North-East.” SBC News The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

Similarly, Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse ‘according to reports, is being looked at by a number of clubs’, Rosbottom added. With West Ham 10/11 favourites to sign him and Southampton having ‘a battle on their hands to keep some of their top talents’, the midfielder may be at the top of transfer trading this summer.

Regarding Madison’s and Mount’s Premier League movements, Freeth added: “ Maddison is another England international that looks to be moving up the food-chain with Newcastle currently looking the likeliest destination. 

“The recently relegated midfielder was 2/1 to be plying his trade at St James’ Park not so long ago, he’s gone from 4/5 to 4/7 over the last 24 hours.”

The Premier League clash – should I stay or should I go?

The Premier League is of course no stranger to raw talent coming in overseas. Punters need to look no further than Erling Haaland, who many successfully backed as the league’s top goalscorer last season, as an example of that.

Despite winning becoming one of only two Premier League teams to lift the continental treble – sharing the honour with their neighbours and rivals Manchester United – bettors are not expecting City to take on an attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’.

“Following Manchester City’s historic treble winning season, we are expecting to see a fair amount of action in the transfer window in terms of incomings and outgoings,” Rosbottom explained.

In particular, punters are expecting a move for the club’s long-serving Ilkay Gundogan. With Barcelona looking to rebuild, City’s top-flight challengers Arsenal looking to close the gap and Saudi Arabia luring many big names in, the German striker may prove a valuable transfer target. SBC News The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

“Ilkay Gundogan’s market has been volatile to say the least with him hitting form just at the right time. Will he stay or will he go?,” Freeth reflected on the midfielder’s market.

“With City at 11/8, we’re currently saying he’s leaving with Barcelona being at 4/5 (biggest 9/4), but could he be joining the exodus to Saudi Arabia (20/1 into 10/1). Then there’s Arsenal (20/1 into 9/1) or what about PSG (25/1 into 16/1)?” 

For Betfair customers, Barcelona has proven the popular choice for punters. However, Bernardo Silva’s Premier League future is also being questioned, whilst bettors also look to who could join Pep Guardiola’s team.

Rosbottom said: “Looking at the latter, the market for Ilkay Gundogan’s next club has been a popular one, and Barcelona have been backed into odds-on at 2/5 to sign him this summer. 

“It’s a similar story for another one of their midfield maestros, Bernado Silva, who has been backed into 17/20 to join PSG in the coming months.

“Looking at who Pep Guardiola could bring in, City are favourites at 4/7 to sign RB Leipzig defender Josko Gvardiol.”

Additionally, Freeth noted that Joao Cancelo has gone from being a ‘must-have player in Fantasy Football one minute to a Pep cast-off the next’. So far, bet365 traders have the player at 18/1 to join Bayern Munich and 4/1 to Arsenal, but 5/2 to stick with Pep’s side.

Trading places

For bet365, the biggest market so far has been Harry Kane, however. Rumours around the England Captain vacating his position at Tottenham Hotspur in pursuit of alternative employment have circulated for some time, but this year may be the year for it.

“Who wouldn’t want Harry Kane leading the line for them next season?” Freeth remarked. “A clinical goalscorer who also excels at dropping deep and creating goals for his team-mates. SBC News The Premier League transfer window: bookies banking on some ‘fire sales’

“With a year left on his contract and Daniel Levy holding the purse-strings, he’s never been a big price to leave Spurs (biggest 2/1) and he’s now back into odds-on at 1/1 to stay at the mightily impressive Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

“Real Madrid were 33/1 towards the end of May to land Kane, many suggesting that he’d rather be the all-time Premier League goalscorer than challenge for major trophies. However, his odds of a move to the Bernabeu have tumbled since then, especially with Karim Benzema heading off to Saudi. 

“He’s 9/4 to be wearing the famous white of Real Madrid not Spurs at the end of the window. And then there’s Poch turning up at Stamford Bridge – he wouldn’t, would he?”

Over at Betfair, another national hero has been gaining traction however. After playing a pivotal role in France’s World Cup win – seeing off Kane’s England along the way – the country’s top-goalscorer has attracted some transfer interest.

“The most interesting market so far this summer has been Kylian Mbappe’s next club,” Betfair’s spokesperson explained.

“This one looks as though it could be a classic transfer saga. Following the reports that he isn’t going to be signing a new contract at PSG, which means he’s a free agent this time next year, the market on the Frenchman lit up, with punters backing Real Madrid into 5/4. 

He has since posted a comment on social media, all but denying a move this summer, and since then we cut him into 4/7 to stay at PSG in the summer.”

With the Premier League window now open and a range of clubs, both established giants and up-and-coming contenders, looking to bolster their teams, bookie traders may have their work cut out this summer

As Rosbottom put it: “Our transfer markets are always popular over the summer and with the fast paced nature of the news agenda, our traders have to be constantly alert to anything such as club announcements, journalist tweets, flurries of bets and many other scenarios that can change the odds rapidly.”

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