SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Sportradar, using its global betting data, has conducted a ‘season in numbers’ analysis of the 2022-23 Premier League Season, during which newcomer Erling Haaland proved that being a ‘novice’ in the English game isn’t always a barrier to finding the back of the net.
Manchester City striker Erling Haaland had bettors convinced he would emerge as the Premier League’s top scorer over the 2022-23 season according to end-of-season analysis conducted by sports technology firm Sportradar. 
The firm revealed that by the end of August, the Norwegian had received 52% of the bets placed in the top goal scorer market – ahead of Mo Salah (10%); Harry Kane (4%); Darwin Nunez (12%); Gabriel Jesus (10%); Marcus Rashford (1%); and Cristiano Ronaldo (2%) combined.
That betting percentage was eclipsed during December, said Sportradar, when the 22-year-old accounted for 94% of the wagers placed in that market worldwide.
And while the threat of continued City dominance rarely faded, the data showed Arsenal as the most backed team to win the title. Over the course of the season, the Gunners received 41% of the bets placed in the Premier League outright winner market worldwide, compared to Manchester City who received 33% of the bets in the same market.
If Newcastle United’s ambitions were given a boost on the back of new ownership, that wasn’t reflected in the betting. On a match-by-match basis, across the full 380 games played this season, Sportradar found that there were surprisingly few wagers on them to win their matches.
In the analysis, Sportradar noted: “Eddie Howe’s side attracted just 6% of the bets to win their matches over the course of the season, despite enjoying their best Premier League form since 2011/12, winning 19 matches, drawing 14 and losing five. Even though they occupied a place in the top six league positions from October, and were challenging for Champions League qualification, they remained unfancied amongst the bettors.”
Sportradar also took into account the bookmaker’s perspective. And it was clear that the operators couldn’t see past Manchester City taking top honours. Bookmakers made the Cytizens favourites to win 92% of their Premier League games this season, with odds of 1.7 or shorter for 100% of their home matches, while they were favourites at that price to win 17 of their 19 away matches.
Looking at it month-by-month, here’s how Sportradar’s global betting data reflected how the Premier League title between Arsenal and Manchester City played out.
August: The 2022/23 campaign begins with soccer bettors heavily backing Manchester City to win the Premier League title. In August, Manchester City received nearly half of the bets placed on the Premier League outright winner market, clearly signifying the punter sentiment on another City title victory.
Over the course of the month, Manchester City (42%) receive more bets to win the league than Arsenal (11%); Manchester United (6%); Liverpool (9%); Chelsea (5%); Newcastle United (2%); Tottenham Hotspur (3%); Brighton and Hove Albion (1%); and Aston Villa (1%) combined.
September/October: As Arsenal started to dominate the league title race, sitting top and clear at the end of October, the punters’ interest had moved towards the North London club with them increasing to 16% of the season bets. Manchester City dropped to 35% of the total bets during this period.
The strong start made by Manchester City and Arsenal prompted bettors to shy away from backing Manchester United (5%); Liverpool (5%); Chelsea (4%); Newcastle United (3%); and Tottenham (2%) to win the title.
November: As the Premier League took a break for the World Cup, Arsenal held a five-point lead over Man City with two games in hand. For the first time bettors started to favour Arsenal, with 30% of the bets in favour of the North London side to win the league compared to 29% for Man City.
December: Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus injured his knee during Brazil’s World Cup campaign. The striker was ruled out for three months and looked set to miss the Premier League restart. By the end of December, Manchester City attracted 40% of the bets to win the Premier League instead of Arsenal, with 32% of bets placed.
January: Arsenal’s strong start to the year saw them end the month five points clear of Manchester City with two games in hand. This impacted the betting tug of war on the race for the title with 51% of the bets placed on the Premier League winners’ market in favour of Arsenal, compared to City with 29%.
March: A last gasp winner against Bournemouth, combined with big wins against Crystal Palace, Fulham, and Southampton had the fans piling in on Arsenal to win the league. With an eight-point lead at the top of the table and a game in hand, Arsenal received 73% of the bets to win the league.
The Gunners received more than four times the number of bets to win the Premier League compared to Man City, who received 10% of the bets to win the league.
April: The wheels started to come off Arsenal’s title challenge. A 4-1 win against Leeds United was followed by draws against Liverpool, West Ham United and Southampton, and defeat against Man City.
Manchester City win five league matches out of five. The betting flips back in City’s favour, with the Manchester club receiving more than 45% of the bets to win the Premier League compared with 36% for Arsenal.
MAY: Manchester City are unstoppable as the season comes to a close. 55% of the bets placed to win the Premier League are for Manchester City, compared to 30% for Arsenal.
