Smarkets has issued a ‘post-election day update’ on ongoing US 2020 developments following a rollercoaster 48-hours of trading on its betting exchange, as US swing states continue to count mail-in votes to conclude a divisive Presidential race.
A night of high drama saw all pre-election polls trashed, as US 2020 chose to follow no intended script, instead putting electorate and punter nerves on a knife-edge.
From the closing of the first East Coast ballots, US 2020 punters locked down for a long night as President Donald Trump and the GOP maintained their lead within the key battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – providing Trump with a clear pathway to retaining the Whitehouse.
On the night, Smarkets reports that Trump had reached his lowest trading price of 1.34 (80% chance of victory), outperforming all polling expectations as the market turned on rival Joe Biden with his odds drifting to 4.6.
However, as US 2020 narratives begun to reflect 2016’s previous election outcome, Biden and the Democratic Party secured some welcome relief by taking critical leads in the West Coast swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
As US states closed election night counting, moving to proceed to count millions of mail-in and absentee votes, Smarkets reports that Trump closed the night as 3.1 favourite (67% chance of winning).
The following day, however, Smarkets saw US 2020’s market flipped as Biden recorded a significant weighting on mail-in votes across all swing states. Closing Wednesday, the former VP’s odds surged to 1.12 trading at 82% of winning the election.
Political pundits predict that the US 2020 Election will be won on the outcome of mid-west Swing states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are predicted to be finalised by Friday.
Observing US 2020’s twist and turns was Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst, who commented: “After a long night for our election market, Joe Biden is once again the strong favourite to win the 2020 presidential election and become the 46th President of the United States.
“Biden now leads in the vote counts in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, and our markets make Biden a heavy favourite to win all three of those states (85%, 94% and 93%, respectively). If Biden takes those three, he’s at 270 electoral votes and will become president-elect, without even accounting for the close races in Pennsylvania and Georgia.”