SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Betting isn’t always about sports – politics and elections can be a popular punt for the news-savvy, and betting exchanges such as Betfair are often the ideal destination for these bettors
Political betting has seen some huge moments over the past decade, particularly in 2016, 2019 and 2020. With the US Presidential election set next year and a UK general election a strong possibility, SBC spoke to Betfair’s Lead Politics Analyst, Sam Robsbottom, to get the bookmaker’s perspective.
With two seismic elections potentially taking place next year, are you expecting higher-than-average turnout for political betting markets?
There’s an incredible appetite for political betting on elections both here and in the US, and there can be no doubt that 2024 is going to be the year of political betting. The US Election in 2020 was, and is still the world’s biggest betting event, with £1.7bn traded on the Betfair Exchange.
The 2020 US election was the biggest political betting event ever, how can bookmakers help replicate this in 2024?
The election in 2020 was incredibly tight, which made it such an appealing market for punters. For all major elections and referendums, results night provide such a unique betting opportunity, it’s very similar to Eurovision.
There’s the initial wave of movement in the market when the exit poll comes out, but then as results come in, state by state, constituency by constituency the market reacts in a similar way it would in-play during the Grand National or a top Premier League game.
In 2020, Joe Biden’s odds to win went out to 4/1 as the results were coming in and it was announced that Trump had won in Florida, but with several key states left to turn blue or red, there were still so many options on the table for Biden to win, the big one being Georgia which went in Biden’s favour, changing the market once again.
As a market that can be affected at a moment’s notice by the news, how do you overcome challenges in pricing betting around elections?
The Betfair Exchange is pretty unique, it’s a peer to peer platform, therefore it’s punters that move the market and change the odds. When there’s particularly big news breaking, it’s hard to take your eyes off the market, watching the odds shift one way or another. We’re expecting plenty more movements on the market as the race to the White House and Number 10 develops.
Do you expect punters to back administrative changes in both the UK and US?
As things stand, punters are predicting change in the US and UK. Donald Trump is the favourite to win the Presidential election at 6/4, while Joe Biden is 11/5. Looking at the next UK election markets, for several months now, Labour has been the overwhelming favourite to win a majority, and looking at the wider polling, it looks as though the Tory party have a lot to do to move that market.
Could UK punters bet heavily on the basis that Labour are expected to regain significant ground in Scotland?
Looking at the most seats market, Labour again lead the way. They’re 2/13 to win most seats, and 3/10 to win an overall majority. Scotland is a huge battleground for Labour in the next election, the recent by-election results have shown that Keir Starmer’s party are serious contenders to take seats from the SNP, which bodes well for punters that have backed them at short prices to win an overall majority.
