The Conservative Party leadership contest will conclude on Monday 5 September at 5 pm, ending an arduous five-week campaign to decide who will take over Boris Johnson as British Prime Minister.
A reported 180,000 Conservative Party members received their postal ballots in August to cast their votes on whether Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak should become next party leader.
Entering the contest’s final hours, Smarkets Politics reports no change as Truss maintains a 96% chance to be announced as new PM.
Providing a vote of share odds forecast, Smarkets details that final voting will likely reflect a 64%-to-36% victory for Truss over Sunak – who, prior to campaigning, was strongly recognised as the Party’s favourite candidate to succeed Boris Johnson.
During the five-week campaign, Smarkets reports that Sunak’s price has dwindled from market favourite to a flatline of 4% (odds of 27/1) – with the market displaying ‘no signs of a late charge’.
Matthew Shaddick, Head of Smarkets Politics, explained: “The betting markets are in very little doubt that Liz Truss will be taking over at 10 Downing Street next week.
“A Rishi Sunak win would represent one of the biggest UK political betting shocks of all time and it would be unprecedented for a candidate given a 4% chance at the end of a campaign to snatch victory.”
The near certainty of Truss becoming next PM has seen political punters shift their focus to a pending shake-up of the Tory cabinet, in which the current position of Home Secretary Priti Patel has been targeted by party peers.
The shake-up sees Tom Tugendhat emerge as the odds-on favourite at 56% to replace Patel, with Kwasi Kwarteng is now up to an 89% chance of being appointed as the next Chancellor, according to Smarkets.
Shaddick commented on cabinet speculation: “The big betting move of the last 24 hours has been for a surprise appointment at the Home Office, with Tom Tugendhat emerging as the frontrunner.”
“Suella Braverman had been the long-time favourite and Tugendhat’s CV would seem much better suited for the Foreign Office; however this morning’s odds on Smarkets now give him a 56% chance of replacing Priti Patel.
“Kwasi Kwarteng remains the hot favourite (89%) to take over as Chancellor with James Cleverly (67%) heading the field in our Next Foreign Secretary market.”