SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
US 2024 proceedings have seen Vice President Kamala Harris become the ‘marginal favourite’ to win the US Election on 5 November.
Betfair reports that during Tuesday night’s televised debate, US 2024 odds flipped in VP Harris’ favour from 11/10 to 20/21 – giving her a 52% chance of winning.
Failing to land any clear blows on Harris, Donald Trump’s odds have drifted from 10/11 to 11/10, giving the former President an implied chance of 47% of retaking his seat at the White House.
Though pricing remains marginal, Betfair deems the flip significant, as Harris and the Democratic Party break Trump’s stride as the US 2024 favourite, a position held by Trump since 1 April.
Betfair Politics Sam Rosbottom noted: “It was a night to forget for Donald Trump, as his odds drifted out to 11/10, their biggest in the last four weeks.
“Punters were quick to react to the key moments in the debate, with £2m wagered in the past 24 hours, the majority of that coming around and during the debate.”
Market movements saw Trump hold a 63% chance of winning in early July, following President Biden’s dismal debate performance, an event followed by the failed assassination attempt on the former President.
However, since President Biden’s exit from the campaign on 21 July, Betfair has witnessed a rapid tightening of odds favouring Harris’s candidacy.
With 53 days remaining until ‘Election Day’, Betfair maintains that US 2024 remains ‘too close to call’, as its live US Election gauge is tied at 50.76% for Harris versus Trump at 48.08%.
Monitoring developments, US 2024 is deemed a “much tighter market compared to 2020’s race, which at this point four years ago, Biden was way ahead, and went on to be as short as 1.61 at the end of September.”
Four years ago, the US 2020 Election broke all wagering records to become the world’s single biggest betting event, with £1.7bn wagered on the Betfair Exchange next US President market.
Sam Rosbottom concluded: “Once again we’ve seen the market swing, and we’re expecting plenty more movement in the next 55 days, but for now, it’s Kamala Harris who leads the race to the White House according to Betfair Exchange punters.”
