SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Betfair reports that its UK politics market has crashed as punters place bets on a General Election to take place in the summer.
Punters are reported to be reacting to rumours that PM Rishi Sunak will move his campaign strategy forward triggering a summer election.
The UK electorate and opposition parties remain frustrated as Sunak has yet to set a specific date. The PM insists that a General Election “will take place in the latter half of the year,” with possible dates ranging from July to January 2025.
Betfair reports that July has become the favoured month for the general election, with odds improving significantly from 16/1 to 10/11 in just four weeks, implying a 52% chance.
This shift shows a strong belief by political punters that the election will occur in July, rather than November, the previous favourite that has drifted to 11/10 (47% chance).
Betfair Politics spokesperson Sam Rosbottom commented: “Rumours are circulating that a summer election is set to be called, and punters have reacted by backing July into odds-on at 10/11, having been as big as 16/1 this time last month.”
“The market has completely crashed, and it looks as though the nation will be going to the polls sooner rather than later. November had been the favourite for some time, but it’s now July that punters favour.”
Sunak feels buoyed by satisfying two of his premier pledges: getting the Rwanda Bill approved by Parliament in April and the latest CPI data revealing that UK inflation has dropped to 2.3% its lowest level in three years, although the decline was smaller than anticipated.
Despite these developments, the Conservative Party is still on course for an ‘election disaster’ as Betfair maintains odds at 1/2 for the party to lose 201 or more seats.
Labour is as short as 2/13 to win a majority and 1/12 to win the most seats at the next election.
Rosbottom added: “Sunak is sure to be buoyant at PMQs today with news that inflation has dropped to its lowest in three years, however, he still won’t like the look of the Betfair Exchange next election markets as their odds still look bleak and there has been no improvement since the news broke this morning.
“The Tories remain odds-on at 1/2 to lose a whopping 201 or more seats at the next general election, and punters don’t seem convinced that it will be anything but a wipeout for the PM’s party.
“While Sunak may be optimistic, Labour have been heavily backed to win an overall majority, which is as short as 2/13, and they are even shorter at 1/12 to win the most seats when the country next goes to the polls.”
