SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Betfair has alerted the media to its belief that PM Rishi Sunak may imminently declare the UK’s next General Election.
Over the weekend, Sunak combatted rumours of a ‘Tory rebels’ plan dubbed ‘100 days to save Britain,’ which suggests he could be ousted if the Conservative Party faces significant losses in the upcoming local elections on 2 May.
Currently, Sunak has not set a specific date for the General Election, causing frustration among the electorate. He insists that the election will take place in the latter half of the year, with possible dates ranging from July to January 2025.
Despite Party strategists pushing for an October or November election, Betfair suspects that Sunak could announce the date very soon, potentially as early as today, Monday, 29 April, putting an end to the speculation.
Odds on Betfair indicate that November is the punters’ preferred month for the election at 11/10 [48%], with October at 4/1 [20%]. Odds for a June election stand at 9/1, while July has shifted to 7/1 since last week.
Sunak reportedly seeks to align the election date with the implementation of the Rwanda Deportation Bill, which the Conservative Party believes will reinforce its commitment to ‘stop the boats.’
Just days before the local elections on Thursday, 2 May, the Tories’ approval ratings have plummeted to a 45-year low, according to the latest Ipsos polls.
The likelihood of an election defeat is mirrored in Betfair’s markets, where a Labour majority is heavily favored at 1/7 [87%], and Keir Starmer is the apparent frontrunner for the next Prime Minister at 1/5 [83%].
Regarding the PM’s future, Betfair considers Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch (7/2) the most likely candidate to succeed Sunak if he is defeated, amidst weekend whispers of a Tory rebellion plotting Sunak’s replacement with Penny Mordaunt at 5/1.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “It is a big morning for Britain, as the fate of two leaders hangs in the balance.
“Odds on Humza Yousaf to step down crashed before confirmation that an announcement surrounding his departure as leader of the SNP will be coming today. Meanwhile around Westminster, there is a buzz of anticipation, could today finally be the day that Rishi Sunak ends the on-going speculation and calls a general election?
“While the PM has always hinted at an autumn election, his refusal to rule out a July election has kept keen eyes on the market – and even keener eyes on who might be the person to replace him.”
