Betfair shortens odds on Labour majority as Tories stick with Sunak 

The Labour Party’s odds of winning a forthcoming General Election have shortened to 1/4 following by-election wins in the constituencies of Kingswood and Wellingborough.

Yesterday’s double victory sees Betfair Politics improve Labour’s odds of winning the next UK election from 1/3 to 1/4 (80%). Of significance, observers noted the significant swings of 11,000 votes in Kingswood and 18,500 in Wellingborough to the Labour camp.

Suffering further by-election losses, Betfair sees the Conservative Party’s odds of winning a majority lengthen to 17/1 (5%). The Party faces the further prospect of losing more than 201 seats, priced by Betfair at 6/5 (54%).

Betfair Politics’ Sam Rosbottom commented: “It was another bruising night for the Conservatives, with huge swings for the Labour party in Kingswood, overturning an 11,220 Tory majority, and in Wellingborough, which was previously a safe blue seat with a majority of more than 18,000.

“It comes as no surprise to see the odds on a Labour majority shorten further and they are now just 1/4 from 1/3 yesterday. Those odds give Sir Keir Starmer’s party a whopping 80% chance to form a majority government, which is unprecedented for a general election betting market.”

Betfair maintains November as the most likely month for the General Election to be called with odds at 11/10, as May elections are now considered less likely at 6/1.

Intriguingly, Betfair reports that punters’ interest has turned to the future of the Conservative Party, which despite setbacks, Rishi Sunak remains favourite to be Conservative leader at the next election, with odds at 2/13.

Rosbottom explained: “It’s another disappointment for Rishi Sunak, who recently has had to fight off rebels from his own party who have described the next election as ‘impending annihilation.’

“Odds on a Tory wipeout continue to shorten, and they are now just 6/5, from 5/4 yesterday, to lose 201 or more seats when the country next goes to the polls. Despite all of that, Sunak is still favoured to be the leader when the next election takes place, and he is odds-on at 2/13 to be in charge when the nation votes.”

As the British public awaits its election call, Labour leads with 1/4 odds for an overall majority, followed by no overall majority at 11/2, and the Conservatives at 17/1. For most seats, Labour is at 2/15, with Conservatives at 8/1.