Tracking Washington developments, Smarkets maintained that President Donald Trump will finish his tenure as 45th President of the United States.
Following the aftermath of yesterday’s shocking storm of Capitol Hill by Trump supporters, the Republican Party faces calls to trigger the 25th Amendment forcing the removal of Trump from office.
Despite Vice President Mike Pence and GOP leader Mitch Mcconnell publicly refusing Trump’s request to intervene in the confirmation of Joe Biden as next President, Smarkets stated that ‘Trump is very likely (94%) to remain in office for the next two weeks and see out his term’.
“Unprecedented scenes at the Capitol between the supporters of Donald Trump and the police caused wild trading on our ‘Trump to serve a full term’ betting market last night,” detailed Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi.
“For a brief period, the likelihood of Trump being ousted before 20 January climbed over 80% before returning to just 5% this morning, with the chance of a 25th Amendment removal appearing remote.”
Meanwhile, for US observers hoping for a ‘peaceful transition’, Smarkets price Trump attending Biden’s inauguration on 20 January up from 1-in-5 to 1-in-3 chance.
The betting exchange notes that yesterday’s events will hold political consequences for Trump, as his chances drop from 32-to-19% to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
Smarkets closed its US update by stating that the chances of Trump ‘pardoning himself’ have more than doubled from 15-to-32%… adding that President 45 will not leave political betting markets quietly in 2021.