Trump takes lead in Presidential race as US 2020 hots up

Donald Trump has gained a marginal lead in the upcoming US presidential election over the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, according to betting exchange Smarkets.

With the Presidential race hotting up, Trump is currently trading at 47%, while Biden is trading at 42%, with $1.9m traded on who will claim the White House.

Commenting on US2020, Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi said: “According to the most recent Monmouth University poll, Joe Biden is on course for 50% of the national vote in November, with Donald Trump lagging behind on 41%. A 9% lead should indicate that Biden is clear favourite, but our market for the next president still slightly favours Trump to win at 47% – with Biden at 42% – and has done so consistently since mid-March.”

Biden is currently trading at 85% to become the Democrats’ nominee, followed by Hillary Clinton who is trading at 7%.

Kamala Harris has climbed back to 36% to be tipped as the Democrats’ vice-presidential nominee, after dropping to 27% earlier in the month. Amy Klobuchar is trading at 17%, while Elizabeth Warren is at 13.5%.

Bakhshi added: “Smarkets users seem to be trying to account for the ‘2016 factor’ and the limits of Biden’s appeal in their predictions, while pricing in the current uncertainty over his choice of VP.

“Following reports that Biden and Kamala Harris are in talks to heal the rifts caused in previous Democratic debates, Harris’s odds for VP nominee have increased from 27% last week to 36% today.

“Biden’s camp can clearly see the benefit of trying to widen the appeal of the Democrats in November by bringing on board the California senator, who would be the first black woman on a major party ticket and could bring out more Democratic voters at the election.”

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