Smarkets: Boris faces a coin-flip on leading Conservatives into next election

PM Boris Johnson may have paid a £50 fixed penalty notice for attending an ‘impromptu birthday party’ at 10 Downing Street – yet Partygate allegations continue to dog his leadership of the Conservative Party.

Mocked by opposition, Johnson continues to deny that he misled the public and fellow ministers, unaware of multiple parties held at Number 10 as UK households observed COVID-19’s national lockdown.

As MPs return to Commons following the Easter Break, opposition parties demand that the Conservative Party hold a vote of confidence on PM Johnson’s future and hold their leader accountable for breaking COVID-19 rules enforced by the government.

Smarkets Politics reports that the chance of Johnson being replaced as Prime Minister this year has risen in recent weeks and now stands at 34%, according to the latest market movements of its betting exchange.

Of further significance, Smarkets observes a 50/50 split as to whether Johnson will lead the Conservative Party into the next General Election.

Matt Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Politics stated: “Whilst the pressure on Boris Johnson is undoubtedly increasing, political punters remain somewhat sceptical that this will lead to him being evicted from Number 10 this year.”

Following the Easter Break, Party focus will shift towards campaigning for the UK Local Government Elections on 5 May.

Conservative peers maintain that Boris is the best man to guide the UK through a period of foreign and domestic perils.

However, buoyed by Partygate and Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s scorned Spring Statement, the Labour Party believes that it can reclaim a number of Red Wall constituencies lost in the 2019  General Election.

“Whilst the pressure on Boris Johnson is undoubtedly increasing, political punters remain somewhat sceptical that this will lead to him being evicted from Number 10 this year,” Shaddick concluded.

“The level of Tory backbench support or otherwise in Thursday’s motion to refer him to a formal investigation might change those odds significantly.”