SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Betting markets provide dire readings for the Conservative Party, as PM Rishi Sunak commits to holding the UK’s General Election on 4 July.
Yesterday, frenzied activity at Downing Street saw Sunak call an emergency cabinet meeting, as senior ministers were informed of the PM’s change of strategy, moving the Party’s election plans from Autumn to Summer.
The decision was branded by Conservative peers as “Sunak throwing a grenade in the room,” telling his confused generals to prepare for a kamikaze six-week General Election campaign.
At 5pm, the PM addressed the nation, but Sunak was trolled by the New Labour anthem of D:Ream “Things Can Only Get Better,” drowning out his election announcement.
A drenched and visibly angry Sunak returned to Number-10, having given the most farcical campaign announcement of any PM. Yet, things can only get worse for Sunak…
The rain-dowsed speech was an apt metaphor for a Conservative Party facing a wipeout come 4 July. As noted by Betway, all Tory outcomes are viewed as moonshots, with the Conservative Party priced to win the most seats at record odds of 9/1.
Tory outcomes are further compounded, as Betway prices the Conservative Party to form the next majority-or-minority government at 25/1 and 16/1, respectively. Odds simply mirror pre-election polls detailing the Conservative Party to be between 20 and 30 points behind Labour.
Likewise, Betway details never before seen starting odds for the Labour Party priced at 1/20 to win the most seats at the next election, which means they have a 95% chance of doing so. Chad Yeomans, spokesperson at Betway, explained: “With the UK now set to go to the polling stations this summer, all indications in the betting markets show we are likely to see a new Prime Minister at Number 10 in July.
“Labour are also big odds-on at 1/10 to hold an overall majority following the election, whilst it’s currently 11/2 that there will be no overall majority. A Conservative majority is priced up at 25/1, with the Lib Dems all the way out at a distant 500/1 to gain overall control once all the ballots have been counted.”
No comfort was provided by the Betfair Exchange, which reported a surge of £1.3m bets on its General Election market in the past 24 hours, favouring a Labour victory.
At present, the Betfair Exchange has priced Labour to win the most seats at 1/18 (94%) vs Conservative at 16/1 (6%), as Betfair reports a surge across UK politics wagers to £9.5m since markets opened.
In the past 24 hours alone, almost £500,000 has been bet on Labour to win the most seats, and nearly £200,000 on them to secure an overall majority.
Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom, said: “As both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer head on the road for their election campaigns, punters have been putting their money where their mouths are, and a whopping £1.35m has been wagered on the Betfair Exchange UK general election markets in the last 24 hours.
“The majority of that has been in favor of the Labour Party, with almost £500,000 wagered on them to win the most seats, and £200,000 on them to win an overall majority since yesterday morning. They are the heavy favorites at 1/18 to win the most seats, and they are also incredibly short at 2/11 to win an overall majority.
“While Labour completely dominates the betting in terms of money, in the last 24 hours we actually took more bets on a no overall majority outcome, and the Conservatives to win most seats, suggesting that while Labour are at such short odds, punters are still speculative about the outcome.”
