Smarkets: Truss leads Sunak in Tory Leadership final two

Following a last round of ministerial votes submitted to the 1922 Committee, the Conservative Party has summoned its final two tributes for Party Leadership – with the winner to replace Boris Johnson as Britain’s next Prime Minister. 

Triggered on 8 July, a leadership race that saw ten MPs submit their bids to enter the Tory leadership coliseum has seen contenders dwindle to the two survivors of Rishi Sunak and Lizz Truss.

Bathed and rested from their battle scars, Sunak and Truss face the gruelling schedule of appearing in twelve Conservative hustings held across the UK during the month of August.

The final two will also go head-to-head in two TV debates on Sky News and the BBC to secure the votes of approximately 200,000 party members who will vote for their next leader on 5 September – ending a bizarre tribal affair.

Down to the final two, Smarkets Politics cites that Truss, currently riding as market favourite, maintains a 68% chance (odds:1.45) to win the leadership race – against Sunak’s 31% chance (odds: 3.2).

Not only making the final two, but leading the race, Truss’ turnaround has surprised political observers, who believed that the Trade Secretary had limited support from party peers, competing within a crowded field of suitors, vying to become next party leader. 

Instead, the race has flipped the script on former Chancellor Sunak – who, branded as the ‘establishment candidate’, must now win the grassroot hearts-and-minds, to fulfil what party grandess believed would be his manifest destiny. 

Observing campaign developments, Matt Shaddick, Head of Smarkets Politics, commented – “Before the final round of MP’s voting, Truss was hovering at around a 50% probability of winning the race. Once we knew Mordaunt had been eliminated, the odds settled at around 60-40 in Truss’ favour over Rishi Sunak.” 

Shaddick noted that the chances worsen for Sunak when assessing initial YouGov ‘Conservative Membership polls’ –  which indicate a 62%-38% lead for Truss (excluding don’t knows)  – deemed as  a “good reflection of opinion right now in the party.”

However, with a month of intense campaigning remaining, Smarkets believes that come voting day, and the vote share of the candidates will be much closer than the anticipated result.

Though Sunak appears to have a mountain to climb, the former chancellor could yet win over undecided Party members, who could be influenced by Sunak’s appeal to MPs and his ability to unite a divided party, that could soon be contesting a General Election. Of further significance,  Lizz Truss made the final two securing the lowest number of ministerial votes of any candidate in the Conservative Party’s history. 

“It’s early days and these markets aren’t very liquid right now, but it seems to suggest that people are expecting Sunak to make up some ground in the campaign,” Shaddick concluded.

“Maybe an event like Monday’s BBC head-to-head debate can move the dial for Sunak – he certainly seemed to get a big boost out of the Channel 4 debate during the MP’s voting stage. Truss’s performance that night was seen as being fairly disastrous and her odds nosedived as a result.”