As the US gears up for election season, betting exchange Smarkets has suggested that Democratic front-runner Joe Biden has a 45% chance of becoming the next US president.
Following a key victory in Michigan, Biden has successfully closed the gap with Donald Trump who is now trading at 51% to gain a second term.
Currently trading at 93% to become the next Democratic nominee, the former Vice President has steamed ahead against fellow Democrat candidate Bernie Sanders who has crashed from 24% to 2% over the space of a week.
Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, commented: “With 1,991 pledged delegates needed to win the nomination, Joe Biden’s performance on mini-Super Tuesday was being closely watched by Smarkets users.
“At the time of writing Biden has 846 delegates to Bernie Sanders’ 684. Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, and Idaho all turned out convincingly for Biden, but with Washington and North Dakota still to call in, his sweep of states is strong but not complete.
“It seems that statewide, Democrats are focused on Trump’s ousting as their number one challenge, and they want a nominee that can bring in Republicans as well as Democrats as opposed to a more radical Bernie agenda.
“Our market was quick to react to the news and is predicting a Biden nomination at 93%, with Sanders being written off at 2%, even though a path to nomination is still possible for him, albeit unlikely.
“Being the front runner has put Biden in touching distance of Trump in our over-$1million Next President market and is currently trading at 45%, to Trump’s 51%. This is the first time a Democratic candidate has been this close to the incumbent and is the highest-traded price we’ve ever seen for Biden.”
“Trump’s reelection has seemed inevitable for the last year of trading, this is the first time that an alternative seems possible.”
Smarkets has confirmed that there has been a significant interest in the US political markets in the run-up to the 2020 season, reporting that $3.4m and $1.4m has been traded on the exchange’s Democratic Nominee and Next President markets respectively.