Home struggles support higher odds as Bundesliga returns

There were higher odds than normal for the home teams as the Bundesliga season resumed in Germany, a trend likely to be reinforced after just one of the teams went on to win.

That was a key finding from this month’s Better Collective Spotlight, for which one of the igaming affiliate’s flagship products in German speaking markets, Wettbasis, provided its betting-based feedback on the league’s eagerly anticipated, behind closed doors return. 

Wettbasis specialises in analysis, statistics and betting tips for matches including those in the Bundesliga. Christian Tichy and Christoph Bauer, two spokespersons for the company, told SBC News that betting volume was higher than normal, most likely because of the excitement built up during the enforced 66-day break.

The pair added that there were less bets placed on home teams across the weekend and less of a focus on highlight matches, for example Dortmund vs Schalke, perhaps reflecting that it was somehow less of a real derby without the fans involved.

To build on the point of heightened home odds, particularly as the week went on, Tichy and Bauer shared that Dortmund had a Betfair exchange price of 1.52 on Monday, which went to 1.65 on the day of the match. Similarly, Hoffenheim – beaten at home by Hertha Berlin – started the week at 2.00 (bwin) before reaching 2.30 ahead of kick off.

While these sliding odds for home teams was vindicated with only second-placed Dortmund winning, it should be noted that Bayern Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach – the other two occupants of the Bundesliga’s top three – were both victors away from home.

Tichy and Bauer explained that we must wait to see the longer-term impact of having no fans in the stadium on betting volumes, because while the fans have potentially more time through not physically attending the match, it will be interesting to follow if the interest in the matches will decline over time without the normal ‘football feeling’. 

They concluded that everything ‘looked fine’ from a Wettbasis standpoint in terms of the availability of in-play markets, implying that there were no problems with accumulating live match data.