Kalshi is pursuing a valuation which will make it larger than every listed gambling company on the planet, should the predictions market giant pull it off.
The New York company is gearing up for a rumoured IPO next year, but ahead of that it is seeking new investment to raise its valuation to over $40bn (£30.2bn).
This would be almost double that of Kalshi’s last valuation in early May, which put the predictions platform at $22bn – making it by far the most valuable company in its niche but clearly lucrative sector.
It would also keep it far ahead of its arch nemesis Polymarket, which is currently valued at $9bn, but like Kalshi also has lofty ambitions of further investment with a target of $15bn on its mind.
Should gambling firms fear Kalshi’s billions?
While Polymarket is undoubtedly keeping a close eye on Kalshi’s plans for a public listing and its $40bn valuation target, gambling company CEOs and CFOs will also be paying just as much attention.
Should Kalshi reach its $40bn target, this would make it bigger than every other publicly listed gambling firm.
The current top three listed gambling companies are:
- Las Vegas Sands, the largest listed gambling company with a market cap of $30.6bn on the NYSE.
- Australian B2B company Aristocrat Leisure, a major developer of gaming machines and other technologies, comes in second at $24.6bn.
- Flutter Entertainment follows at $17bn. A global hegemon as owner of FanDuel, Sky Bet, Betfair and more, Flutter’s shares have taken a tumble this year and it is a long way from its peak in August
A $40bn valuation for Kalshi would still put it behind Flutter’s August 2025 peak of $55bn.
However, it should still give gambling company executives a lot to think about – namely, what can we do about it? Can we do anything about it? And how long will this last for?
Of course, there is the fact that many US-facing gambling firms have got involved in the predictions scene, including Flutter itself which launched FanDuel Predicts in December 2025.
The fact that Flutter was beaten to the punch by Fanatics and DraftKings, which also launched predictions propositions in December last year, dampened investor confidence in that firm, however, contributing to the 2026 YTD share price decline of 55%.
A good saving grace betting companies have is their brands. DraftKings’ Chief Executive Officer, Jason Robins, has earmarked predictions as a ‘strategic priority’ for the company, which is one of the two biggest sportsbook operators in the US alongside FanDuel.
The firm’s DraftKings Predictions app was launched in December, after Fanatics but ahead of FanDuel, in 38 states. The firm’s CEO states that it is targeting leadership in sports predictions by the end of 2026.
Is now the right time for a predictions IPO?…
Kalshi has been making a lot of money lately, at least according to the company.
It claims to have processed more than $17bn during the first two weeks of the World Cup and over $1bn on the Super Bowl back in February.
However, the timing of its 2027 IPO ambitions may have one or two observers scratching their heads. This is largely because of the amount of legal and regulatory battles the firm is embroiled in.
As it stands, the company is involved in litigation with 11 US states, which have either taken umbrage with its events contracts being billed as a form of financial services product like a swap or derivative, or charge that its products amount to illegal gambling – or both.
The situation becomes even messier internationally, with a range of regulators in Europe, Asia and Latin America issuing blocking orders against either Kalshi, Polymarket, or both, such as the Netherlands, France, Singapore and Portugal, among others.
Kalshi was told to exit India this week as the government takes greater control over online betting, gaming and fantasy sports markets under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA) 2025.
Then there’s controversies around product and marketing. Concerns about insider trading around major political developments like the US intervention in Venezuela and the war in Iran have raised concerns about the ethics of political markets.
Marketing is a newer controversy, but one that could seriously impact the sector. Polymarket’s partnerships with influencers have gained particular attention lately, with a number of accounts on X accused of promoting the company without disclosing paid partnerships.
In an even bigger development, investigative journalists have now accused the firm of working with university aged students in the US who share posts showing how much money they have made trading Polymarket contracts – the catch being that none of it is real according to investigators.
While political contracts and the marketing controversies affect Polymarket more than Kalshi – the latter’s contracts are largely placed on sports while the former’s are dominated by politics – the wider negative publicity it is giving predictions in general could drag down a future IPO, hypothetically.
…or is it the only time for a predictions IPO?
The biggest trump card the company and predictions in general can pull – pun absolutely intended, my apologies – is the fact that the US presidential administration is firmly in their corner, and in Kalshi’s case the firm benefits from some direct connections.
Donald Trump Jr, the eldest son of President Donald Trump and his first wife Ivana Trump, has been a paid consultant to Kalshi since January and has reportedly secured a $300,000 equity stake in the company.
President Trump’s first pick for Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator which licences Kalshi, was Brain Quintenz, a Kalshi board member since 2021.
Under the Trump administration, predictions have flourished. Despite state lawsuits, Kalshi and Polymarket have benefited from a CFTC which is much more supportive of them than under the Biden administration, when it was more hostile.
Trump’s eventual choice of Chair, Michael Selig, made it clear that the regulator would fully back predictions against any state challenges. He has made good on this promise, with the CFTC launching a lawsuit this week against Connecticut, one of the 11 states embroiled in litigation with Kalshi.
The allies Kalshi and predictions platforms have in the White House and in federal regulators could mean that next year is actually the best year for them to pursue an IPO, despite controversies old and new.
How sustainable this is is another matter. Trump is not a popular president right now and is widely expected to lose the November midterm congressional elections.
If the Biden administration’s approach to predictions was anything to go by, a theoretical Democratic presidency in 2029 can be expected to be much more hostile to predictions – and shares could plummet back to the ground, alla SpaceX
