Predictions market giant Polymarket partnered with Genius Sports yesterday in a move that led to a substantial hike in the latter’s share price on the New York Stock Exchange.
The deal is set to combine live sports streaming, official league data and integrity services with prediction markets on Polymarket’s platform, giving eligible US users access to exclusive live sports streams alongside related real-time event contracts.
This includes one of the traditional “Big Five” football leagues in Italy’s Serie A, and comes at a time when Americans across the country are gaining more and more interest in football following the nation co-hosting the 2026 World Cup.
London-headquartered Genius’ official data will be used to determine the outcome and settlement of covered markets.
It also represents a further step in the development of sports prediction markets in the US, bringing together the viewing experience and event-based trading in a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform.
Genius’ official data will provide the underlying information used to settle sports contracts, meaning market outcomes will be determined using the same verified event data supplied to professional leagues.
The recovery after a heavily-questioned Legend deal
After the partnership was announced yesterday, the firm’s shares rose by over 14% and hit its highest peak ($8.08) since its stock plummeted in February on the back of the announcement of its proposed $1.2bn takeover of digital sports and gaming media network Legend.
This was eventually completed in May, and for its part, Legend will have involvement in this Polymarket deal, supporting the partnership through its media properties and helping Genius extend Polymarket’s reach with eligible US sports fans.
Post-Legend acquisition, shares in Genius dropped as low as $3.92 – their biggest plight for around three years. This was some way off the point that they had been trading at – around $11 – at the start of 2026.
The firm’s market cap even dropped below the $1.2bn value of the Legend acquisition in early April, but it has now recovered to surpass $2.1bn.
It was the difficulties investors had understanding the synergies between Genius and Legend that initially put them off the deal and led to the share price decline in the first place, yet the former seems to be proving its doubters wrong so far.
In May, the sportstech revealed overall year-over-year revenue growth of 30.5% from $143.9m (£105.6m) to $187.9m in Q1, while EBITDA drastically increased by 21.3%.
However, these results came from a period before the Legend acquisition was complete.
The initial impact of the combined business will be revealed tomorrow as Genius unveils its Q2 results before the market opens.
For Polymarket, the partnership represents a boost as it continues to challenge Kalshi in the race to become the undisputed global prediction markets sector leader.
Polymarket’s sports footprint now includes official league partnerships with MLB, Liga MX, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, MLS, NHL and UFC.
“Trust, transparency and innovation are fundamental to the long-term development of sports prediction markets,” said Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket.
“Live streaming, official data and integrity infrastructure play an important role in establishing an engaging product that customers can depend on.
“Our partnership with Genius Sports gives professional leagues direct visibility into prediction market activity around their competitions and reflects the standard we hold across every official league relationship we build.”
Why trust is key in Genius-Polymarket deal
Speaking of the trust element that Borod mentioned, the deal has an integrity component.
Polymarket will participate in Genius’ integrity information-sharing processes, providing leagues and governing bodies with greater visibility into prediction market activity around their competitions.
The companies said this will allow for real-time coordination around irregular trading patterns and complement Polymarket’s existing market surveillance and compliance systems.
This is arguably more pertinent than ever, with prediction markets coming under sustained pressure in 2026 across Europe, and more recently in their home of the US.
Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute in New York, with the state claiming that it is disguising illegal gambling as financial trading.
Polymarket has also faced many critics, not least for its questionable markets, with examples of these being ongoing geopolitical conflicts, whether President Donald Trump will insult someone, and if Jesus Christ will return by 2027.
It has not been immune from the wrath of regulators too, having been restricted in numerous European countries.
List of European countries that have banned Polymarket:
- The UK
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- Belgium
- The Netherlands
- Poland
- Portugal
- Hungary
- Romania
- Belarus
- Switzerland
- Czechia
Legal scrutiny for Polymarket is not just limited to Europe and the US too, with the US-based platform encountering issues in several Asian countries, such as South Korea, Indonesia, Myanmar and Singapore.
Though uncertainty in the sector is more prevalent than ever before, the markets still seem to think that Genius is set to massively benefit from a Polymarket partnership.
Prediction markets may also have a glimmer of European hope on the back of Gibraltar recently creating a regulated prediction markets framework.
For Genius leadership, the agreement reflects the growing convergence between sports media, official data and prediction markets.
Sean Conroy, EVP of Rights and Partnerships at Genius Sports, added: “Prediction markets are emerging as an important new way for fans to engage with live sports.
“As the category continues to grow, robust integrity safeguards are not simply optional; they are foundational.
“By bringing together official data, live streaming, league IP, integrity services and the reach of our Legend media network, we are helping Polymarket deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for sports fans across the US.”
The agreement is effective immediately, with markets across selected Genius leagues and competitions available to eligible US users.
