Meta is mulling over its next big move, according to the New York Times (NYT), with the social media giant supposedly considering a leap into the rapidly growing predictions space.
This wouldn’t be the first time, and likely won’t be the last, that Mark Zuckerberg’s company has looked to jump on an emerging technological and/or social bandwagon, but it also comes at a time when the firm is facing an unprecedented amount of scrutiny around relating to betting and consumer protection.
Why does Meta want in on predictions?
It’s easy to see why Meta, owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, is keeping an eye on predictions, at least according to the NYT.
The outlet has cited anonymous sources familiar with the matter, who explained that Meta is developing and testing its own predictions app dubbed “Arena”, to be downloaded and used separately to the Facebook and Instagram apps.
Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, Arena users would not take out ‘events contracts’ (or bets as many refer to them) using real-money, but would instead use a video-game style points system.
However, NYT’s sources said that the firm has not ruled out eventually using real money.
Following growth in the early 2020s, the hype around prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket was predominantly focused on their primary product – trading on real world events, including politics, sports and market moves for a financial reward.
The similarities between predictions and the traditional betting exchange operated by the likes of Betfair or Smarkets have been widely noted, and we’ll dive deeper into this later.
However, predictions soon began to take on another role, that of an opinion pollster or media source. The fact that Polymarket users overwhelmingly predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory while opinion polls largely favoured Harris particularly cemented this reputation.
Meta’s unique standing in the social media space, giving it a grand overview of users’ opinions on current events and sports and most crucially, meaning greater access to an unfathomable tonnage of data (if data could be weighed), could certainly give it an edge in predictions, as the platforms continue to converge on the space between media, polling, betting and finance.
This is also far from the first time that Meta has gone all in on a new technology or product. Most readers will likely remember Zuckerberg’s obsession with the metaverse in the early 2020s, coinciding with the rebrand of the Facebook group identity to Meta in 2021.
And above all else, there’s the money. After all, they do say that money talks … Kalshi has been valued at some $22bn (£16.7bn) while Polymarket has been valued at $9bn, and is targeting another valuation of $15bn.
Kalshi has claimed some $2.9bn in traded volume around the World Cup so far, and claimed $1bn on the Super Bowl Sunday weekend alone.
Meta – valued at $1.43trn as of June 2026 and declaring $201bn in revenue in 2025 – clearly fancies gaining more ground via a slice of the predictions pie, according to NYT.
And if their recent growth is anything to go by, you can see why Zuckerberg is wanting in on the action.
What risks do predictions pose for Meta?
Any major business decision like this – whether a launch into a new market or development of a new product or in Meta’s case here, both, always carries a lot of risks. Meta’s move into predictions right now seems particularly risky, however.
Prediction markets are popular, but are also highly controversial. Countless European countries such as the Netherlands and France, to name just two, have banned major platforms, and even the US, where predictions have taken off the most, isn’t an easy run for the companies.
The US is the site of regulatory battle between regulators from states like Nevada, Arizona and Kentucky, among others – which view predictions as illegal gambling platforms. – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), under the Trump administration, has backed predictions as legitimate derivatives and futures markets, so their future still remains somewhat confusing.
Yesterday, this battle escalated yet again with the CFTC suing the state of Kentucky for moving to ban ‘federally regulated event contracts’. The CFTC is asserting that predictions are its regulatory domain, and that states have no power over them.
By launching a predictions platform, Meta will likely find itself dragged into this regulatory battle, especially if it eventually decides to add real money wagering to the platform. The company is likely taking comfort in knowing that the CFTC is on the predictions side, however. But how long that will last, now that’s another question entirely.
There is one other big factor to consider. Meta has been facing a huge amount of scrutiny in Europe regarding the number of adverts and promotions for unlicensed and illegal gambling companies on its platforms.
Meta’s critics so far this year:
- Tim Miller, Executive Director of Policy and Research at Britain’s Gambling Commission, criticised the company for a lack of action over illegal gambling advertising at the ICE trade show in January, reiterating his frustration on SBC’s iGaming Daily podcast.
- Entain, one of the UK’s largest gambling firms as operator of Ladbrokes Coral as well as a major European player via Bwin, cited various cases of influencers promoting unlicensed gambling sites on Facebook and Instagram, and cases of AI generated content distributed by these companies, in a recent OSINT report.
- VNLOK, the trade body for online gambling in the Netherlands, began preparing a formal legal complaint to the European Commission regarding the number of adverts and promotions for unlicensed gambling sites on Meta’s platforms.
- This came after the Dutch gambling regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), filed over 4,600 reports of illegal gambling advertising with Meta in April 2026 alone.
Further confounding this is the fact that platforms like Polymarket are also being accused of working with football influencers on X without said influencers disclosing that they are in paid partnerships with the platform.
Topping it all off, public concern about the negative impacts social media is having on young people and children is at an all time high.
The UK’s recently announced planned ban on under-16s using social media, based on the Australian ban which was passed in parliament in 2024, is a perfect example of this.
Meta operating a predictions product won’t do much to ease these fears, particularly as gambling regulators and much of the general public across many nations view predictions as having little-to-no difference to conventional betting platforms.
Of course, Meta is no stranger to dealing with controversy – the revelation of the Facebook–Cambridge Analytica data scandal in 2018 comes to mind – and likely expects to ride out any controversy around predictions as it has done before.
It is a controversy that it will nonetheless have to deal with as regulatory and political concerns about predictions, social media usage and gambling related harm reach fever pitch across countless countries.
But for the meantime, Zuckerberg will no doubt be keeping a close eye on the opportunities available to add yet another vertical to Meta’s ever-growing portfolio. Will it be a good decision? Only time will tell …
Meta and predictions – a savvy business move or a step too far?
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Meta is mulling over its next big move, according to the New York Times (NYT), with the social media giant supposedly considering a leap into the rapidly growing predictions space.
This wouldn’t be the first time, and likely won’t be the last, that Mark Zuckerberg’s company has looked to jump on an emerging technological and/or social bandwagon, but it also comes at a time when the firm is facing an unprecedented amount of scrutiny around relating to betting and consumer protection.
Why does Meta want in on predictions?
It’s easy to see why Meta, owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, is keeping an eye on predictions, at least according to the NYT.
The outlet has cited anonymous sources familiar with the matter, who explained that Meta is developing and testing its own predictions app dubbed “Arena”, to be downloaded and used separately to the Facebook and Instagram apps.
Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, Arena users would not take out ‘events contracts’ (or bets as many refer to them) using real-money, but would instead use a video-game style points system.
However, NYT’s sources said that the firm has not ruled out eventually using real money.
Following growth in the early 2020s, the hype around prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket was predominantly focused on their primary product – trading on real world events, including politics, sports and market moves for a financial reward.
The similarities between predictions and the traditional betting exchange operated by the likes of Betfair or Smarkets have been widely noted, and we’ll dive deeper into this later.
However, predictions soon began to take on another role, that of an opinion pollster or media source. The fact that Polymarket users overwhelmingly predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory while opinion polls largely favoured Harris particularly cemented this reputation.
Meta’s unique standing in the social media space, giving it a grand overview of users’ opinions on current events and sports and most crucially, meaning greater access to an unfathomable tonnage of data (if data could be weighed), could certainly give it an edge in predictions, as the platforms continue to converge on the space between media, polling, betting and finance.
This is also far from the first time that Meta has gone all in on a new technology or product. Most readers will likely remember Zuckerberg’s obsession with the metaverse in the early 2020s, coinciding with the rebrand of the Facebook group identity to Meta in 2021.
And above all else, there’s the money. After all, they do say that money talks … Kalshi has been valued at some $22bn (£16.7bn) while Polymarket has been valued at $9bn, and is targeting another valuation of $15bn.
Kalshi has claimed some $2.9bn in traded volume around the World Cup so far, and claimed $1bn on the Super Bowl Sunday weekend alone.
Meta – valued at $1.43trn as of June 2026 and declaring $201bn in revenue in 2025 – clearly fancies gaining more ground via a slice of the predictions pie, according to NYT.
And if their recent growth is anything to go by, you can see why Zuckerberg is wanting in on the action.
What risks do predictions pose for Meta?
Any major business decision like this – whether a launch into a new market or development of a new product or in Meta’s case here, both, always carries a lot of risks. Meta’s move into predictions right now seems particularly risky, however.
Prediction markets are popular, but are also highly controversial. Countless European countries such as the Netherlands and France, to name just two, have banned major platforms, and even the US, where predictions have taken off the most, isn’t an easy run for the companies.
The US is the site of regulatory battle between regulators from states like Nevada, Arizona and Kentucky, among others – which view predictions as illegal gambling platforms. – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), under the Trump administration, has backed predictions as legitimate derivatives and futures markets, so their future still remains somewhat confusing.
Yesterday, this battle escalated yet again with the CFTC suing the state of Kentucky for moving to ban ‘federally regulated event contracts’. The CFTC is asserting that predictions are its regulatory domain, and that states have no power over them.
By launching a predictions platform, Meta will likely find itself dragged into this regulatory battle, especially if it eventually decides to add real money wagering to the platform. The company is likely taking comfort in knowing that the CFTC is on the predictions side, however. But how long that will last, now that’s another question entirely.
There is one other big factor to consider. Meta has been facing a huge amount of scrutiny in Europe regarding the number of adverts and promotions for unlicensed and illegal gambling companies on its platforms.
Meta’s critics so far this year:
Further confounding this is the fact that platforms like Polymarket are also being accused of working with football influencers on X without said influencers disclosing that they are in paid partnerships with the platform.
Topping it all off, public concern about the negative impacts social media is having on young people and children is at an all time high.
The UK’s recently announced planned ban on under-16s using social media, based on the Australian ban which was passed in parliament in 2024, is a perfect example of this.
Meta operating a predictions product won’t do much to ease these fears, particularly as gambling regulators and much of the general public across many nations view predictions as having little-to-no difference to conventional betting platforms.
Of course, Meta is no stranger to dealing with controversy – the revelation of the Facebook–Cambridge Analytica data scandal in 2018 comes to mind – and likely expects to ride out any controversy around predictions as it has done before.
It is a controversy that it will nonetheless have to deal with as regulatory and political concerns about predictions, social media usage and gambling related harm reach fever pitch across countless countries.
But for the meantime, Zuckerberg will no doubt be keeping a close eye on the opportunities available to add yet another vertical to Meta’s ever-growing portfolio. Will it be a good decision? Only time will tell …