Gibraltar is setting itself up as a European for the burgeoning predictions market sector, granting approval in principle to WagerWire.
The launch comes two months after Gibraltar’s first licensed predictions market, ADI Predictstreet, was announced. ADI Predictstreet is a prediction partner of the FIFA World Cup, but its platform only went live on Monday – three days before kickoff.
WagerWire’s entry into predictions lines up with its existing business model.
The Los Angeles-based firm straddles the boundary between financial trading and betting, as its ‘secondary marketplace’ allows buying and selling of previously placed bets, similar to trading of financial assets.
The firm has named its forthcoming predictions proposition Wire Markets. If given full approval, which the Gibraltar government seems keen to give, it will become Gibraltar’s second licensed predictions platform after ADI Predictstreet.
Although the US stands out as the world’s biggest market for predictions, WagerWire has chosen Gibraltar as its first port of call, having taken note of the British Overseas Territory’s new outlook at the predictions sector, and betting and gaming more generally.
“This is a transformational opportunity for WagerWire to fully realise our mission,” said Zach Doctor, Chief Executive Officer of WagerWire.
“For years, we’ve built products that challenge the status quo by introducing greater flexibility, liquidity, and control into traditional sportsbetting, and Wire Markets represent a natural extension of that vision.”
WagerWire likes the way Gibraltar thinks
Much like betting and gaming, the regulatory landscape for prediction markets is highly fragmented. Predictions are still relatively new, with the two leaders in the space, Kalshi and Polymarket, having been launched in 2018 and 2020 respectively.
Some regulators have taken a firm stance against predictions – the Netherlands, Romania, Portugal, France and Belgium, to name a few. Others, like the UK’s Gambling Commission, are open to predictions, but only if operators hold a betting licence under it.
In Gibraltar’s case, the Mediterranean territory sees predictions as a valuable aspect of its economic evolution. The territory counts betting and gaming as a significant economic sector, accounting for around 25% of its GDP, and it wants to ensure this continues.
“We feel a strong alignment with Gibraltar’s vision and its longstanding reputation as the gold standard in international gaming regulation,” Doctor continued.
“The jurisdiction’s commitment to thoughtful innovation creates a powerful foundation for growth, and we’re excited about the opportunity to build from Gibraltar as we pursue a global vision for the future of prediction markets.”
WagerWire may have also been prompted to choose Gibraltar due to the situation in the US.
While predictions are huge there, the space has become very competitive with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the pack alongside the likes of Robinhood and Crypto.com and bookmakers like Fanatics, DraftKings and FanDuel, the latter three having joined the hype in December last year.
The company may be positioning itself to capitalise on the more untapped territory of Europe. Another factor may be the legal battle between various state regulators opposed to predictions and the federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is firmly in predictions’ corner.
Gibraltar predicts its future
Gibraltar’s important gambling sector is facing several challenges, not least among them tax hikes and regulatory upheavals in countries like the UK, which the vast majority of Gibraltar’s gambling firms target as a key market.
This prompted Gibraltar to press ahead with legislative reforms earlier this year, and it also seems to have prompted the government to embrace predictions as a way to diversify its gaming ecosystem.
Just last week, Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner, confirmed to SBC News that the government was in the process of licensing its second predictions platform following the newly launched ADI Predictstreet.
ADI Predictstreet officially launched in April but only took its platform live on Monday after a lengthy period of beta testing. It is going live across 23 US states ahead of the World Cup via a deal with Fanatics, and is also partnered with World Cup broadcaster DAZN.
Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, who led the legislative process during the passage of the territory’s 2025 Gambling Act, commented on WagerWire’s licence and Gibraltar’s outlook on predictions,
“Gibraltar has long been recognised as a leading jurisdiction for innovative and responsibly regulated gaming businesses,” the Minister said. “We welcome applications from companies that prioritise transparency, compliance and technological innovation.
“WagerWire’s application is being viewed favourably at this stage, subject to the completion of the relevant due diligence, assessment processes and regulatory requirements. We look forward to continuing our engagement with the company as that process progresses.”
