Tory leadership contest: Sunak and Mordaunt tipped for PM role as Boris hints at return

As political commentators across the UK speculate which Conservative politician could be next to haunt the corridors of Number 10 Downing Street, bettors appear to be backing Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as the “clear frontrunners” to succeed Liz Truss.

According to Smarkets, Sunak has been given a 48% chance to become the next Prime Minister. Mordaunt, meanwhile, follows close behind with a 34% chance.

Matthew Shaddick, Head of Politics at Smarkets, said: “Liz Truss’ announcement has kicked off another Tory leadership contest with Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt leading the early betting and possibly set for a head-to-head showdown.

“The second and third in the summer leadership race dominate the market to succeed Truss, with no signs of major support for any other candidates so far. Despite calls for an early election, bettors remain unconvinced that it can happen this year, with a 2022 poll given just a 9% chance of happening.”

What might have come as an unwelcome surprise to many is Boris Johnson’s rumoured return. The former PM has a 7% chance of being re-elected, and Foreign Secretary Ben Wallace has a 6% chance of a promotion to the Prime Minister position.

Left wing voters are likely to be disappointed for the remainder of this year, with Smarkets predicting that there is only a 9% chance of a snap general election before the end of the year – that figure rises to 29% for 2023.

After only 44 days in office, Truss is now the shortest serving Prime Minister in UK history – having held the job for less than half the time of the second shortest serving premier, whose leadership lasted 119 days before passing away.

Following the release of the mini-budget back in September, critics have argued that Truss’ reign entered a downward spiral – with the ‘sacking’, or ‘shock resignation’ if you will, of Kwasi Kwarteng and Suella Braverman following a few weeks later.

bet365’s punters are backing similar Ministers to those on Smarkets, with Rishi Sunak 10/11 favourite to lead the country (at the time of writing). The former Chancellor is followed by Penny Mordaunt at 5/2 and Boris Johnson at 13/5.

This year (13/2) is likely too soon for a general election, however the price of a general election in 2023 has been cut to 9/4, with 2024 or later still odds-on at 4/7.

A bet365 spokesperson said: “The news coming out of Downing Street today came as little shock considering the Labour Party’s strength in the betting.

“Liz Truss’ position as Prime Minister was deemed untenable by senior Tory MPs and following her resignation today, Rishi Sunak was installed as 8/13 favourite to replace her.

“Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party are 1/3 to win the most seats at the next election and 8/11 to return an overall majority.”