Betfair US 2020 – Biden takes pole position but punters side with Trump

Fourth of July celebrations could not hide President Donald Trump’s struggles to retain his administration, as Betfair Politics stated that Joe Biden is now 8/11 favourite to win the upcoming US 2020 Presidential Election (3 November).

Tracking a ‘nightmare June’ for Trump, in which his Presidency has been scarred by the social unrest caused by the COVID-19 lockdown and Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality, Trump has seen his national approval rating slump to 41% across all major polls.

Monitoring developments, Betfair Politics stated that Trump’s ‘low polls correlate strongly with odds’ currently traded on its US 2020 market, in which he has become the ‘least likely US President’ to retain the White House priced on current odds of 15/8.

Darren Hughes, spokesman for Betfair Politics commented: “Trump has had a disastrous three-month period since the coronavirus outbreak hit the US, which has seen his odds go from 4/6 (suggesting a 60% chance of re-election) in early March, right out to 15/8 (35%).

“Such has been the detrimental effect of this time, Betfair Exchange suggests there is a 10% chance that he won’t even run for election, which is unheard of for a sitting President”.

Despite widespread criticism of Biden running a lacklustre campaign against Trump, Betfair underlined that the former Vice President has flipped US 2020 trading since May. 

To date, Betfair reveals a total of £85 million traded across all US 2020 markets, in which Trump maintains his popularity with punters against the polls with £26 million wagered on him retaining his Presidency against Biden’s £10 million.

Detailing a higher wagering volume across all US 2020 markets, Betfair noted that punters are turning their attention to which ‘Swing States’ will be in play come November polling.   

“Biden’s chances of election can be easily juxtaposed against Trump’s – having been as big as 99/1 in February, when Bernie Sanders looked sure of securing the nomination, Biden’s odds have steadily contracted, to a low of just 8/11 (58% chance).

 “Biden has had a steady stream of support and endorsements from all sides of the Democratic party, including Barack Obama, and despite a few less-than-impressive media performances, he appears to be firmly in the driving seat to win the election should he be able to maintain this momentum.’’

One of the more surprising events of the Independence Day celebrations came in the form of rapper Kanye West throwing his hat into the ring as he announced his bid to become the next US president. 

Having previously teased at the possibility of running for President, the rapper’s odds collapsed from 999/1 to 129/1 over the weekend. 

Hughes added: ‘‘His wife may be best known for ‘breaking the internet’, but Kanye West himself shocked the world, and US Presidential betting markets, last night with his announcement that he intended to run for President later this year, sending his odds on Betfair Exchange tumbling from 999/1 to 129/1 overnight, with many states still allowing nominations for independent candidates to be added to the ballot.

‘‘West’s close friendship with President Trump has seemingly done little to deter him, and close friend and ally Elon Musk was on hand to tweet his support early on for the billionaire rapper.

‘‘One man unlikely to be happy with this news is Joe Biden, who has seen his chances go from 8/11 (59%) to 4/5 (55%) overnight on the back of West’s announcement. President Trump, however, has seen his odds contract significantly, from 15/8 (34%), to 8/5 (39%), with punters perhaps feeling his past friendship with West will be in his favour.

‘‘Should West follow through on his announcement, it will be just the latest twist in what has already been a bizarre election cycle- though hopefully not quite as bizarre 949/1 odds on Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson becoming President coming to fruition.’’

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