As US polls place Donald J Trump at the front of the 2016 Republican Presidential Primary race, it appears that UK bookmakers are not currying favour for the outspoken and controversial GOP candidate.
Last week US news sources proclaimed that Fox News’ Live Republican Candidate Debate had been ‘Trumped’, as the apprentice took centre stage in front of a TV audience of +20 million.
Following the live debate in Cleveland, US media broadcast that Trump had managed to maintain his 25% lead in the latest opinion polls, ahead of former Florida and Wisconsin Governors’ Jeb Bush (12%) and Scott Walker (11%).
Despite favourable opinion polling and Trump’s enviable daily press/media coverage, UK bookmakers appear to still be cold on the New Yorker leading the GOP’s Presidential campaign in 2016.
Pitching against the latest US polls, bookmakers have placed Trump fourth favourite at 8/1 to win the Republican Primary. Trump was considered an outsider at the start of the market in May with many bookmakers placing him as a rank outsider at 150/1.
The Trump media glare appears to have not rubbed off on bookmaker markets, who still appear to favour a two candidate contest between Jeb Bush (favourite – 5/4) and Scott Walker (9/2) with former Florida House Representative Marco Rubio third favourite at 7/1.
With the first Republican caucus set for March 2016, bookmakers appear reluctant that Trump will prevail in a long and hard fought battle, favouring the belief that party members will ‘vote with their conscience’ come ballot day.
Trump’s candidature has divided Republican Party commentators, many of whom believe that the US magnate has struck a chord with party members and their core values, following 8 years under the Barrack Obama administration. Whilst others have warned that Trump’s campaign will actually agitate Democrat activisim and thus undermine any Republican candidate’s efforts to take the White House. And should Trump follow through with the threat of running as an independent candidate, then he is likely the split the conservative vote and make it far more easy for the Democrats to hold onto the Oval Office.