Tipster Profile: Jason Mills

Jason Mills, a football tipping specialist on Bet Advisor, takes us through his decision making process and how he looks to get an edge on a consistent basis.

How did you first get into sports betting ?  

For as long as I can remember I have always been interested in sports of all types, the progression to actual betting came at Sixth form age when myself and a friend wrote a program on one of the very first home computers using very simple statistics that were available at the time.

At what point did you realise that you can make some real money from sports betting?

I made a little money very early on using those very simple statistics so I knew it was possible that I could gain an edge.

Life changes very quickly at that age, graduation, work, marriage, children, so personal betting was put on the back burner so to speak. As the kids grew up and I started to get a little spare time to myself, I started getting back into statistics and data collection. Computers had moved on greatly and the internet opened up a whole new world of statistics.

How did you come to select football as your chosen sport?

Football was the sport I first started to predict, and the first I instinctively went back to, but I did look at other sports. I guess having played football as a kid and watching plenty of matches on TV I had a better understanding of the sport and what could possibly be important statistics. I looked at horse racing but quickly learnt it wasn’t for me, I have no background or knowledge of horses and was way out of my depth, but hats off to the equestrian guys ( and other sports ) they really know their fields.

Are there any particular events that you look forward to throughout the year?

In football the matches I think will be great to watch actually changes each year, the stats I keep tell me interesting things so it’s not always the big teams that may produce the most exciting matches. Despite all the hype and self-promotion I do like Jose Mourinho as a tactician, so some of Chelsea’s matches are a must watch.

Outside of football I like playing and watching Golf, so I look forward to all the majors but especially the masters, the course is amazing and it tells me that winter is behind us and the warmer longer days are just ahead. In horse racing the Grand National, I also like the Oxford Cambridge boat race and the list goes on.

What was your best ever bet?

 My most profitable bet was in horse racing and in the Grand National. Each year I have a bet in the National, not just because everybody and their pets do, but because it’s a very good race for statistics. It’s the longest race run and over tough obstacles so strong trends have emerged over time. The horse I picked was Mon Mome and it won at 100/1.

In football the biggest odds I select are around 4/1 so nowhere near as good, but when you get one right against a strongly backed outcome it makes me smile. I try very hard to keep my personal feelings out of selections so I won’t ever say that I was pleased one team beat another.

What kind of factors do you evaluate before making a selection?

Aha ! – you want me to give away my hard earned secrets do you ? – LOL !!

Well I’ve always been a numbers and statistics person, the key to long term success is finding statistics that actually mean something and are consistently reliable. There are loads of stats out there, some are total rubbish, some look to be worthwhile but are inconsistent, some are excellent in their own right and to complicate matters even further, some stats work well but only when combined with others. As you can tell I have spent a long time modelling numerous variations.

What has been the biggest influence on your betting career?

I can’t really say that it has been any particular one thing or person. I’ve read many articles and joined many betting forums and over the years I have picked out what I consider to be the best bits and applied them to make the package that we have today. I am not finished by any means, I am still learning, and listening to other Bet Advisor tipsters explain their methods and successes, it confirms that it’s an on going process.

 Do you have any future plans in regards to your service?

I am currently trialing a system for under / over 2.5 goals which is looking hopeful. I don’t generate systems lightly as I collect data for a minimum of 5 years and run models to check if they have been profitable in each of those years.

What has been the biggest challenge you’ve faced in your betting career?

The betting market is constantly evolving so it’s not just finding a method that works, it’s keeping up with the changes to keep that method working. It’s also very important to keep personal feelings and other external influences out of the selections, and then learning and stubbornly sticking to money management systems.

How do you balance your betting time and family life?

I find having a schedule works well, I know in advance when the matches are being played, I know when the sites I use update the information I need, so I schedule time in advance to be able to collate all the data.

I use to collect data manually, but I now have a bespoke computer program written for me that scrapes the data from various sources, which saves me loads of time and helps immensely.

Do you have a favourite team that you follow regularly?

The closest team to my place of birth is Chelsea, so I have a soft spot for them. I moved to Norwich at an early age and have lived here ever since, so I follow the huge swings in their fortunes.

How do you keep calm when you hit a run of losing bets?

Experience helps greatly here, I used to tell myself in the early days that it’s all part of the numbers. I now know from experience what strike rate my system has, and from that you can calculate what length of losing run you are likely to experience. It’s a little complex, using logarithmic maths but it can easily be done in excel.

For clients I would say try this little experiment, get a coin and flip it the number of selections your chosen tipster advises in a year (easily found on the Bet Advisor site stats ) note down the sequence of heads and tails (prepare to be surprised) now imagine that heads is a winning bet and tails a losing bet, you will now see the kind of losing runs you can expect, remember this is a 50% strike rate simulation. If your tipster has a higher strike rate then the sequences will be smaller and if lower then the expected sequences will be longer.

How do you organise your bank management?

I have everything recorded in an excel spreadsheet, I wrote a simple code that keeps track of the overall strike rate, the current strike rate, the starting bank, the current bank, and it calculates the stake for me to place on the next bet. The staking system I use is tuned to my system and allows for expected losing runs.

What is the best reason you could give to anyone who was thinking about following your service?

Liquidity, Liquidity, and Liquidity –  a tipster can be excellent, with great yield and consistency but if they bet in small markets then one or both of these two things will happen, either the odds will change very quickly and the edge will be lost, or there won’t be the money available on the exchanges or very many bookmakers offering the odds quoted.

I only bet in the English Premiership League using Match Odds, which has huge liquidity and a vast amount of bookies ready to take your investment, the market is very mature and can absorb large stakes with ease. The results posted on Bet Advisor can easily be achieved or maybe even bettered due to client friendly listing times.

Follow Jason Mills’ progress on Bet Advisor here.