Betfair – Le Pen drifts but punters still seek Trump-like moment

With just three days to go until France heads for its final round of General Election voting (Sunday 7 May), Betfair Politics has priced far-right candidate Marie Le Pen at 9/1 (11% chance of winning).

Updating its ‘France 2017 market’, Betfair Politics has detailed that yesterday’s live TV debate between Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron favoured the centrist ‘En Marche’ candidate Macron who is currently priced at 1.12 (89% chance of winning).

Heading into Sunday’s final ballot, Betfair has traded + £25 million on its market, with Le Pen receiving substantial backing in a ‘two-horse race’. The bookmaker details that a Le Pen victory will be seen as another Trump-like upset, with bookmakers paying out hefty sums to political punters.

Commenting on the market, Betfair Spokesperson, Katie Baylis said:

 “Most political commentators agreed that Macron came out the winner of what proved to be an extremely acrimonious debate and the betting certainly reflected that.
“However, overnight backing came for Le Pen who continues to attract far more bets than Macron, in fact 73% of all bets this week have been on her. But unsurprisingly the big money is being staked on Macron, with 90% of money placed on the favourite so far today, including a £50k bet placed this morning.”

French Presidential Election 2017

Next President – £25m Matched

  • Emmanuel Macron              1.12 (1/8 or an 89% chance)
  • Marine Le Pen                    9 (8/1 or an 11% chance)

Le Pen 2nd Round Vote Percentage

  • 30% or lower           42 (41/1)
  • 30.01 – 35%            8.8 (8/1)
  • 35.01 – 40%            2.44 (6/4)
  • 40.01 – 45%            3.2 (11/5)
  • 45.01 – 50%            8 (7/1)
  • 50.01% or higher      10 (9/1)

2nd Round Vote Turnout

  • 70% or lower           7 (6/1)
  • 70.01 – 73%            5 (4/1)
  • 73.01 – 76%            3.8 (14/5)
  • 76.01 – 79%            3.75 (11/4)
  • 79.01 – 82%            6.8 (6/1)
  • 82.01 – 85%            25 (24/1)
  • 85.01 – 88%            110 (109/1)
  • 88.01% or higher      250 (249/1)

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