Following this Sunday’s first round ballot, the 2017 French General Election will be decided by two outsiders as centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right populist Marie Le Pen battle in the deciding 2nd round of voting on 7 May.
Updating markets, the majority of bookmakers’ have priced Macron as firm 1/8 favourite (implied 90% chance of winning). Pollsters and commentators believe that Macron will now carry favour with the electorate, as French political parties push for the candidate to win round 2.
Immediately following the announcements of the two Presidential finalists Francois Fillon leader of the Les Republicans and Les Socialist’s Benoit Hamon urged their party members to vote for Macron in order to ‘stop a far-right extremist’.
As expected Marie Le Pen’s odds have drifted to 5/6-1 to win France 2017. However, a number of bookmakers have detailed that Le Pen dominates market wagers as political punters look for their Brexit and Trump moment in 2017.
Speaking to SBC, Smarkets spokesman Pascal Lemesre commented on France 2017 “The implied probability of a Le Pen victory according to our market (12%) is quite similar to those that Leave and Trump had in the two big political betting shocks last year, but there is a big difference in the polls.
While the Brexit vote and Presidential election were neck-and-neck in the polls in the lead-up to the vote, polls in France – which called the first round very well – have Macron way ahead for the second round and it really does look like his race to lose.
So, while the betting markets are quite similar, polling isn’t and it would probably be a bigger shock than Brexit and Trump were Le Pen to triumph.”