Smarkets: Biden clear DNC leader after remarkable comeback

Winning 10 of 14 states in Super Tuesday’s DNC Primary sees former US Vice President Joe Biden achieve a remarkable campaign turnaround.

Updating all US 2020 markets, betting exchange Smarkets has priced Biden as current market leader (1.17), giving Uncle Joe an 85% chance of winning the DNC ticket.

A Biden comeback proved to be yet another ‘Super Tuesday surprise’, as the Smarkets exchange had traded President Obama’s VP 9.2 odds (8% chance) just days before Primary voting, with political punters anticipating a ‘Bernie Sanders blowout’.

However, on Monday afternoon Biden secured critical endorsements from DNC dropouts Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, radically changing the DNC’s field in favour of Biden’s campaign.

A frantic 24-hours saw Biden secure majority delegates within the states of Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia.

Virginia and North Carolina are considered crucial victories for Biden, as they represent key swing states for US 2020, further boosting Biden’s DNC leadership odds.

Biden’s change of fortunes saw former market leader Bernie Sanders plummet into second, as Smarkets re-prices Vermont’s left-wing senator to a 12% chance (6.6 odds).

Heading into the final weeks of DNC campaigning, Sanders is reported to be seeking a ‘progressive endorsement’ from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who remains on the campaign trail despite her odds falling to less than 1% (170 odds).

Commenting on Super Tuesday’s action, Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, said: “Going into Super Tuesday, trading activity showed the market favouring Joe Biden at 54% to win the Democratic nomination, with Bernie Sanders at 35%. A big swing in Virginia began the evening’s ‘Joe-mentum’ and by 8:30 pm Eastern time, his chance of becoming the Democratic nominee had jumped to 73%.

“A tense night followed for the other candidates as it soon became clear this was a Sanders vs. Biden contest. Biden winning Texas cemented an unbelievable resurgence, which started back in South Carolina and has continued until now – leaving him the firm favourite in our Democratic nominee market, currently trading at 75%.

“Although it seems at this stage that Sanders has won California, Biden’s strong performance across the country now means that he is the man to beat, and the most likely to face off against Trump in November.”

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