SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
The betting market’s reputation as the best political outcome poll/indicator has taken a bit of a beating, with the Conservative Party winning a slight majority after yesterday’s General Election.
Throughout the build up to the 7 May General Election, political betting markets had favoured a Hung Parliament which would be led by a Labour Minority. Bookmakers William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes had further announced that the UK Election would be the closest in the country’s recent political history.
Entering voting day, the majority of UK bookmakers had placed David Cameron and Ed Miliband neck and neck at 10/11 to be the next Prime Minister.
However last night’s exit poll publication would overrule prior market odds and UK polls, as it predicted the Conservative Party would achieve several gains in Labour and Liberal Democrat constituencies. At the time of its first publication the exit poll would point to a Conservative-led minority government, with the party predicted to win 315 seats.
Furthermore the Labour Party would be severely impacted by an almost complete takeover of Scottish constituencies by the Scottish National Party (SNP) led by Nicola Sturgeon.
The exit poll publication saw a dramatic market shift as David Cameron’s Prime Minister odds were shortened to 1/10 by William Hill and 1/20 by Ladbrokes. At the time of publication bookmakers would further cut their governing party odds to favour a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition at 5/2.
As further polling results came in during the night, it would become apparent that the UK would be heading for a Conservative majority led government, as the party homed in on gaining the 326 common seats needed for an outright win.
Betfair, which at the start of the week had given the Conservative party a 33% chance of winning the Election, this morning had reversed its prediction to a 97% Conservative majority outcome.
UK bookmakers, who had placed much effort in providing analysis and commentary on the 2015 General Election, can take heart as they were not alone. In fact the majority of political polls undertaken in the build up to 7 May voting day had proved wrong, favouring a Labour minority government. The betting markets also predicted that the Conservative Party would win the most seats. At least that prediction has proved to be spot on.
Also it appears that the betting markets were also one of the closest to actually predicting a Conservative majority – albiet with only a probability of 6%.
Yesterday, many felt betting markets were nuts for holding onto the prospect of an overall majority, unlike experts.. pic.twitter.com/aMThYQwCiw
— Albert Tapper (@Mincer) May 8, 2015
