US media predicts a ‘Bernie Blowout’ as 14 states head to the polls in a critical ‘Super Tuesday’ (3 March) Democratic Party primary vote.
Nevertheless, bookmakers believe that ‘primary season’ still holds plenty of twists, turns and unknowns as a divided DNC chooses its leader to dethrone Donald Trump’s Presidency.
SBC gets the bookies lowdown as a vital stage unfolds for what many believe will be this year’s biggest betting market… ‘US 2020’.
SBC: More than a year has passed since initial DNC candidates were put forward. Does the DNC race still hold any ‘unknowns’, or do all roads simply point to a Trump vs Sanders showdown for US 2020?
Sarbjit Bakhshi (Head of Politics – Smarkets): Bernie Sanders is now trading at 51% in our market to be the Democratic nominee but with Biden chasing him at 23%. We believe that this is far from a foregone conclusion as has been reported by various media outlets.
Sanders needs to win big across a variety of states to get the delegates to be guaranteed his position against Trump in the US Presidential election.
We’ve only had a small selection of primaries so far awarding relatively few delegates, but with the more populous states like Texas, where Sanders is at 52% and Biden 37%, yet to award their delegates the race is far from over.
This Saturday’s South Carolina Primary market is at 94% for Biden and a big win here could be just the great result he needs to give his campaign momentum ahead of Super Tuesday, and the decisive results of this thrilling night.
SBC: Looking at Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, US Election’s Super Tuesday has a history of delivering ‘Primary Shocks‘. Which candidates do bookmakers think will be 2020’s ‘Super Tuesday Surprise’?
Matt Shaddick (Head of Politics – Ladbrokes): The biggest surprise would be Joe Biden winning up to 5 or 6 states; only a week or so ago people were talking of a Bernie Sanders clean sweep (Now 8/1 to win all 14 states with Ladbrokes).
Assessing markets at this moment, I would say that 4 wins would be a good return for Biden and would definitely keep him in the race.
On current trading, any Michael Bloomberg state wins would have to count as a surprise, although the odds suggest he has some sort of chance in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ladbrokes Politics make him a 6/4 shot to pick up any vote share first place.
SBC: Regardless of the Super Tuesday’s outcome, the DNC remains a divided party, favouring President Trump. How will the ‘US 2020’ market change as it becomes a two-horse race?
Joe Lee (Head of GB&I – Paddy Power): There’s no doubt that the DNC race will ultimately culminate in a deeply divided party and you could see real issues when it comes to coalescing behind the ultimate victor – the direction of travel of late indicates Bernie Sanders (10/11 for Nominee) is most likely to emerge from Super Tuesday with a lead, followed by Joe Biden (5/2).
Despite Michael Bloomberg (6/1) thrusting himself into a very prominent position when initially announcing his intention to throw his hat in the ring, that momentum has pretty much ground to a halt in recent weeks, and he’s really starting to struggle. Perhaps the Dems are starting to view him as having too many Trump-like similarities… ‘self-made billionaire anyone?’
So who would Donald Trump most like to see coming over the hill? Well we’re not entirely sure he’ll be concerned by any of the three main Democratic protagonists and Paddy Power punters are very much in agreement; but as things currently stand he would likely be a bigger favourite vs Biden or Bloomberg (expected in the 1/2 – 2/5 range).
With Bernie we see the matchup being a lot closer to the 8/11 – 4/6 range and the potential “he couldn’t even beat Hillary” line being rolled out on a regular basis. These are however much bigger prices than you’d ordinarily anticipate for an incumbent which tells you all you need to know.
One of the world events that does often benefit a sitting President however is a crisis – with COVID-19 quickly spreading globally Trump will be given a platform to show leadership. He may also be given a fall guy for any economic downturn stateside which we’re sure the Democrats would have been planning to attack him on given how much he has used the markets and growth to his benefit.
It’s safe to say while Super Tuesday will not be a big turning point for Trump in this 2020 race for the White House, it most definitely will for one of the three leading Democrats… so watch this space!