Billed as the most important midterm elections in modern US history, this 6 November US states decide their representatives for the House & Senate.
Can the Democrats secure their much desired ‘Blue Wave’, or have polls underestimated President Trump yet again? Furthermore, will Midterms 2018 showcase the lead cast for the US 2020 General Election… SBC gets the bookies lowdown!
SBC: The majority of midterm polls indicate a ‘Democrat blue wave’. How confident can Democrats be of flipping the House and Senate, or will history simply repeat 2016 proceedings?
Katie Baylis (UK & Europe PR Lead Betfair): With polls indicating the Democrats are on target for a majority in the House of Representatives, it’s no surprise that punters on Betfair Exchange see it that way as well. A Democrat Majority is currently at odds of 4/9 or a 69% chance, with a Republican Majority at 2/1 or a 31% chance.
The battle of the Senate is a tougher proposition for the Democrats of course and they are a long shot at 13/1 to or just a 7% chance of gaining a majority, but if they can take the House of Representatives then we are set for fireworks over the next term with President Trump’s plans sure to be blocked and delayed at every turn, leading to an even more tumultuous pollical climate in the States than ever before.
SBC: At a market-level, what are the most hotly contested 2018 gubernatorial races. What states should political punters be monitoring?
Sarbjit Bakhshi – Smarkets (Head of Politics – Smarkets): At a state-level, Smarkets sees three intriguing gubernatorial races, which pitch Republican Trump-MAGA stalwarts against fresh Democrat faces.
First up, the Florida Governor Election has been regarded as a toss-up race between two partisan contenders for the Senate, Congressman Ron DeSantis (Republican) and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (Democrat).
Our market has Gillum last traded at 68%, which indicates that the black Democrat backed by Bernie Sanders will take the seat. DeSantis is strongly aligned with Trump and his ‘Make America Great Again’ programme.
Meanwhile, the Georgia race between Stacey Abrams (Democrat) versus Brian Kemp (Republican) is particularly intriguing. If Abrams wins, she will be the first female African-American Governor in US history. At present Smarkets, has Abrams at 44% against Kemp, but this race is regarded as a toss-up by most political commentators even if Democrats haven’t won a major statewide office in Georgia since 2000.
Finally, Nevada is just too close to call, who will replace outgoing Republican Governor Brian Sandoval.
At present we are leaning to the Democrats, as Adam Laxalt (Republican) last traded at 49% against Steve Sisolak (Democrat) at 56%. There is another deep ideological split in this race with Laxalt garnering the support of Trump and Sisolak wanting to support the marijuana industry in the State
SBC: Will the midterms reveal US 2020’s Presidential Candidates for both the Democrat and Republican parties. Which US runner has caught the public’s attention?
Matt Shaddick (Head of Politics – Ladbrokes): Whilst these midterm elections look likely to be the biggest ever in terms of betting interest, they probably won’t impact the 2020 Presidential race all that much.
Even if the Republicans do much worse than expected, there doesn’t seem all that much danger to Trump being the nominee.
On the Democrat side, the one new runner to emerge has been Beto O’Rourke, Ted Cruz’s opponent in Texas. A narrow loss might be the best scenario for those who got on the Beto 2020 bandwagon early and at big prices.
SBC: Does a Republican loss of the House & Senate, necessarily lead to a Trump impeachment and resignation? Is this Democrat wishful thinking… Has President Trump been underestimated yet again?
Joe Lee (Head of Trump Betting – Paddy Power): A few weeks out from midterm madness, the words ‘Trump’ and ‘Impeachment’ are forced back together like an aged boyband trying to rekindle glories past.
The balance of power in both the House and the Senate are back up for grabs which some believe will pave the way for Trump to be impeached. The US Constitution allows for Impeachment of a sitting President when the House of Representatives votes in favour by a majority followed by a trail in the Senate. If the individual is found guilty in the Senate by two-thirds or more, then they are removed from office.
Currently, Paddy Power bet 4/11 (73%) that the Democrats hold a House majority after these midterms. That could be step one in pushing an impeachment case to the Senate where things may come a cropper.
The Democrats are seen as 9/1 underdogs (10%) to hold control of the Senate. You’re looking at some fancy prices to have both of these happen couples with an Impeachment, which means the Democrats are most likely going to continue to be Trumped for now…at least until 2020!