Paddy Power states that the ‘dreaded B-word is back in British politics agenda’, as the bookmaker prices a No Deal Brexit as the likeliest outcome of the ongoing trade talks between the UK government and its EU counterparts.
A week which began with The Financial Times reporting that PM Boris Johnson plans to override key conditions of Parliament’s approved EU Withdrawal Agreement sees Paddy Power short its Brexit market at 6/4 that the UK will fail to leave the transition period without securing a trading arrangement.
The Conservative government’s planned u-turn, which is yet to be officially confirmed, has seen Paddy Power punters rush to back a No Deal outcome, which Paddy Power reports traded at 3/1 last week and was priced at 5/1 this time last year.
The bookmaker maintains a Deal outcome at 1/2 but warns that odds are drifting as PM Johnson has formally stated that his government ‘won’t back down’ to EU demands on fisheries, state aid rules and securing the Northern Ireland protocol.
With negotiations at a standstill, Paddy Power notes that it is highly unlikely that the transition period will be extended beyond the end of 2020 (1/5 – 83% chance) compared to 3/1 that the UK government will continue trade talks.
Spokesman Paddy Power said: “Brexit, eh, remember that word? We’d all gotten so used to words like ‘furlough’ that we almost forgot it existed.
“As talks ramp up, the odds of a no-deal Brexit now look shorter than ever, with minimal chance of any extension to the transition period either.”
Despite being over four years in the marking, Paddy Power has priced 7/1 that a vote to re-join the EU takes place within the next five years.