SBC News Bet Advisor Tipster Profile : Aiden Monroe

Bet Advisor Tipster Profile : Aiden Monroe

aiden

This week we have interviewed Bet Advisor’s longest serving horse racing tipster, Aiden Monroe. Since he joined Bet Advisor in September 2011 he has provided his clients with almost 28.000 point of profits for a yield of 20.08% in 1882 tips.

SBC: How did you first get into sports betting ?


AM: My Father was a keen racing enthusiast and took me to the races from the age of six onwards.
His eyesight started to deteriorate four years later and the small font size in the Sporting Life paper publication that was in circulation at the time meant he got me to read the form (not interpret) to him on a regular basis to allow him make his betting decisions.

SBC: At what point did you realize that you can make some real money from sports betting?

AM: I was lucky that I started out early because I wasn’t legally allowed to bet, so did a lot of paper trading, testing out what worked and what didn’t in my latter teenage years, there were many pitfalls along the way as you would expect due to starting out so young and being more naive but that meant with the valuable experience and knowledge I had ascertained within that time frame made me more grounded before financially starting out. Of course we are always learning, the permutations and complexities involved means it isn’t an exact science but it did put me in a good position to hit the ground running earlier then would normally be the case for those that take up the profession. I took a full time job in the city as a junior derivatives trader on the ground floor to save up what capital I could before going full time professionally at the age of 21.
SBC: How did you come to select Horse Racing as your chosen sport?

AM: This is answered in part in question one, but in addition it runs in the family and I got the bug fairly quickly, probably due to the fact once that John Francome (champion jockey at the time) signed a requested autograph in 1985, actually my father asked on my behalf as I was a bit shy, it occurred at Plumpton of all places!!, My Father’s rationale was if he took me to one of the worst racecourses in the UK for the first time and I still enjoyed it then racing would be apart of my life for a considerable length of time, I was only eight years old and he was right, it’s been my passion ever since.
SBC: Are there any particular events that you look forward to throughout the year?

AM: As a spectacle, jump racing is more enjoyable then the flat but being business orientated, means I’m more focused on the day to day operation, and more significantly looking at the long term, the yearly returns, that hasn’t changed over the last fifteen years, more so with clients to look after.. From a personal punting perspective where liquidity is more available then the Cheltenham festival is top of the list, Royal Ascot (less so), Glorious Goodwood and the Ebor meeting at York takes more significance.

betad2014SBC: What was your best ever bet?

AM: I don’t apologize in not answering this question directly because it doesn’t matter what my best bets have been if i have made a loss on the year, my satisfaction comes from making a profit on an annual basis, if that hasn’t been achieved, then regardless if I have had some decent wins that are noteworthy, it becomes in essence redundant if a loss on the year is recorded, it hasn’t happened yet and I intend to keep it that way for years to come, its all about long term growth profit wise.

SBC: What kind of factors do you evaluate before making a selection?

AM: It’s a combination of discretionary analysis that is less quantifiable, such as observing events to highlight future opportunities that is backed up by quantifiable statistical data on the day, which both support each other to provide the conviction needed in the selection process.

SBC: Do you have any future plans in regards to your service?

AM: I tried changing certain elements to my service at the beginning of the year, which to the detriment to my clients and myself didn’t work, the concept was based on a systematic approach to improve turnover, it was back tested for a long while but what works in theory doesn’t mean it will work in a practical situation, in this instance I was having to decipher which selections to leave out or include as there were too many qualifiers, omitting winners and including losers was a common theme and didn’t help matters during that period. Because it was systems based and not using my own set of skills turned out to be the fundamental issue and the motto that springs to mind is “if it isn’t broken don’t try and fix it” and by the end of June, I informed clients I was going back to the methods that made this service a very good one to begin with, we have now go on an upward curve since and should certainly continue to do so consistently as we had done before. One possible idea but certainly much further ahead would be to provide clients via private message in running plays and arbitrage opportunities on the exchanges as knowing how the markets are going to move before it actually does is one of my major strengths, this is often reflected in the prices of my recommendations in relation to SP, to make that idea become realistic we would be looking at the high profile events where sufficient liquidity is available to accommodate every investor. Ante post betting is also under consideration and should be a part of the service from the beginning of next year.

SBC: What has been the biggest challenge you’ve faced in your betting career?

AM: Getting my investments on, bookmakers are more acute these days and my betting operation was closed down in 2011 with all the major bookmaking agencies, hence why I swapped one revenue for another by joining Bet Advisor to provide clients with information that can make them long term profits over time. I can now only get on by using agents or brokers in high liquidity markets and through the occasional associate when they are available.

horses2SBC: How do you balance your betting time and family life?

AM: Balance is important, thankfully my family are very supportive, I don’t exclude them, when I’m off to high profile meetings, the family enjoy coming with me, the kids can attend the funfair, we all have lunch together and enjoy the spectacle and visit places across the UK that we normally wouldn’t under different circumstances. I try to make it a family occasion whilst working on days out so they get the flavor of the whole experience, obviously proving a few winners along the way makes it even more enjoyable for them when it happens but at the end of the day it gives them a better understanding of the work involved which they seem to appreciate, they wouldn’t get that if they weren’t apart of it.

SBC: How do you keep calm when you hit a run of losing bets?

AM: This isn’t a problem for me at all because mathematically at the prices I operate means the median price is around 7-1 so you would need just over a 14% strike rate to break even and therefore you would expect 80% of selections to lose, obviously you don’t want to break even and your strike rate at each price has to be higher then the actual expectation rate. As another example, I know that my strike rate at 5-2 is near 37% but tend to go off much shorter so I’m gaining a big “edge” over time. The only instance you would want more winners then losers is when your backing odds on shots up to even money, the lower the price the higher the strike rate has to be. I’ve kept records of my strike rate at each set price over fifteen years so I know where my strengths lie.
SBC: How do you organize your bank management?

AM: The best question in my opinion. I hope I don’t cause too much controversy in expressing my own thoughts, it’s a subject that is often debated and I respect all views even though they are the polar opposite of my own. I recommend placing your investment to the stakes suggested as oppose to a percentage of the bank. If you were to have a good run then your stakes would be significantly higher on a future selection that is considered by the provider to have the same worthwhile chance as to what has gone on before during a good run and in terms of stakes for previous selections, that clearly doesn’t makes sense. This is the similar with yield returns. A yield return that is higher then a profit return would imply that’s the best course of action at a cursory glance but this doesn’t take into account the fact, that in order to produce an actual better return on capital on a yield basis means you have to stake higher then what has been recommended by the tipster concerned, hence going against his advice and staking higher to achieve the same results. The client should join a service based on what the results are and what is recommended, ie; to not act in differently and devise different staking plans as they will not work in the long term. Monte Carlo simulations and Kelly crietiron formula do have some validity, the latter if used more conservatively to preserve banking capital but you need a very large set of data to hold that level of confidence. You will be gald to know I’m good on that score.

SBC: What is the best reason you could give to anyone who was thinking about following your service?

AM: According to the BA rankings, I’m listed as their number one tipster from overall records covering all tipsters from all sports, this also applies when measured by overall profit by a reasonable margin and I have been one of their longest serving employees since Bet Advisor came on the scene.

There’s a mathematical formula known as the “Archie Formula or chi squared statistics” which measures ones ability and how much that is down to skill or luck. You need to calculate it on a large set of sampled data, over a 1000 selections is ideal, the more the better in a live environment, I mention this because it’s very relevant and vastly different to working in your own comfortable settings compared to actually providing recommendations where client rely on you to generate good returns, clients are more loyal once you have demonstrated your skills based on a large sample and with over 1800 selections to date my current customers are comfortable with my ability to deliver on performance over time because it’s proven.

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Content provided by Stefano Saccani – Business Development  & Affiliate Manager Bet Advisor
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