It will come as no surprise to many that gambling operators across the globe are reporting high traffic on the 2026 World Cup.
This has even reached a record-breaking level for some, but the unanswered question is: are profit margins as high as expected?
The tournament has seen some political tension, disputes regarding kick-off times (mainly from European viewers), discussion regarding whether an extension to a 48-team tournament would dampen the quality, and vocal fan distaste for hydration breaks.
However, you’d have had a tough task remaining unimpressed by the World Cup so far.
While 32 teams qualifying for the knockouts did reduce pressure somewhat in the group stage, there was still plenty of quality on display.
Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ousmane Dembélé and Vinicius Jr all scored multiple goals in group stage games.
Alongside the quality, there will have ultimately been some seriously punter-friendly results.
For UK bookies, there would have been some respite after England’s 0-0 draw with Ghana.
To compile frustration for England fans, Flutter Entertainment told the Financial Times (FT) that the results “more than balanced the books”.
Favourites prevailing so far at the 2026 World Cup
But said punter-friendly results were seen in the eventual group stage outcomes, where 11/12 favourites (according to DraftKings odds) were triumphant.
World Cup Group Winners
- Group A: Mexico (7/10 fav)
- Group B: Switzerland (77/100 fav)
- Group C: Brazil (3/10 fav)
- Group D: USA (13/10 fav)
- Group E: Germany (1/3 fav)
- Group F: Netherlands (77/100 fav)
- Group G: Belgium (21/50 fav)
- Group H: Spain (11/50 fav)
- Group I: France (9/20 fav)
- Group J: Argentina (9/25 fav)
- Group K: Colombia (2/1 2nd fav)
- Group L: England (2/5 fav)
So Group K was the anomaly, where second favourites Colombia topped the group over favourites Portugal, but it shows a trend of the big teams’ success in the early stages of the World Cup.
Yes, surprise packages like Cape Verde progressed at the expense of perennial dark horses Uruguay, but the group stages panned out almost as expected.
This has continued into the Round of 32, despite one major anomaly.
France swept Sweden aside, with Mbappé bagging a brace.
Brazil left it late but nicked a win over Japan.
England survived a scare when a Kane brace grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat against DR Congo.
A Ronaldo penalty helped Portugal to a controversial 2-1 win against Croatia.
Spain took care of Austria, with frontman Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice.
Haaland poked home a late winner for Norway against Ivory Coast.
Hosts and match favourites Canada, Mexico and USA all won to nil, while a Romelu Lukaku-inspired comeback saw favourites Belgium overturn Senegal, and Switzerland, who were around even money to beat Algeria, did exactly that in a 2-0 win.
Yes, there’s plenty more to come tonight, with three games in the round remaining, but there have only been two results go the way of the underdog.
The Netherlands were favourites against Morocco, but were defeated on penalties in somewhat of a mini-shock, given the African side were controversially crowned AFCON champions just this year and made it all the way to the semi-finals in the 2022 World Cup.
Another shock, and the only real major one, was Paraguay defeating four-time World Cup winners Germany on penalties. The South American side entered the match as huge underdogs, with BetMGM pricing them at 5.2/1 to qualify for the Round of 16.
Germany’s miserable exit has not put fans off following the tournament though, according to Tipico, which will be a boost for the Deutsch operator.
Interest in the World Cup remains strong among German football fans despite the national team’s elimination, with more than 80% continuing to follow the tournament, according to new research commissioned by the Tipico Sports Data Centre.
The representative survey, conducted by sports business consultancy ONE8Y, found that 83.3% of football-interested Germans are still actively following the World Cup.
It does represent a slight decline from the 89% recorded before Germany’s exit, but the tournament is continuing to attract significant attention even without domestic involvement.
The findings also show that France are the clear favourites for punters, with Spain, England and Argentina among those lagging behind but still the best of the rest.
Tipico will be hoping, like many other operators, to be struck by some good fortune as the tournament tipped to be the biggest-ever for the industry progresses.
Midnite told SBC News before England vs DR Congo on Wednesday that “various World Cup games have been our highest turnover events ever” and that “England v DR Congo has the ability to be the highest turnover event ever”.
But as we all know, turnover doesn’t always equal profit.
The FT said that DraftKings lost as much as $50m during the group stages of the tournament, according to Bank of America estimates. Given the lack of shocks and big name goalscorers continuing their form into the knockouts, there can’t have been much respite.
Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair owner Flutter Entertainment is reported to have paid out £4.1m on the England 4-2 Croatia game alone.
Is immediate profit the only objective?
It’s not all about the immediate profits from World Cup matches for operators, though.
Many have secured marketing deals specifically for the tournament, a strategy mirrored by prediction markets such as ADI Predictstreet, Kalshi and Polymarket.
ADI Predictstreet and Kalshi recently partnered to develop a co-branded World Cup hub for the knockout stages, providing access to “a wide range of global football prediction markets, alongside tournament updates and exclusive content”.
This, as eagle-eyed viewers may have noticed, has resulted in both companies’ logos appearing on LED advertising boards in host stadiums.
Now is not the time to delve into the controversies surrounding prediction markets though, merely an opportunity to use them as examples of long-term value potentially still being realised from the World Cup, even if bottom line numbers aren’t as successful as some anticipated.
This is not to say that operators will not be hoping for some more shocks though, and maybe a few more results which could tip the scales back in their favour as we reach the business end of the footballing bonanza in North America.
