
The ongoing transition of Brazil to a regulated market has started slowly, yet its potential is substantial as detailed by analysts at JMP Securities…
Brazil’s transition from a grey to a regulated online gambling market is off to a slow start, according to new analysis from JMP Securities.
Following meetings with operators during last week’s ICE2025 conference in Barcelona, JMP said initial feedback highlighted significant challenges around compliance requirements, KYC protocols and onboarding processes.
JMP added that black market operators remain active and undermine migration to licensed platforms, but B2B suppliers have been less affected. Expectations are that Q1 will be challenging, but the market should stabilise and become a major global growth opportunity for online gaming.
The Jefferies team said H2 Gambling Capital has forecast $3.7bn GGR in 2025 and “by its second full year, Brazil is expected to be the fourth-largest regulated online gambling market globally, behind only the US, UK and Italy”.
What Bets web traffic details…
Since regulation, “Brazilian online gambling websites received 63.4m average daily visits, peaking at 87.3m on 18 January. For context, this is 45% higher than average daily web traffic to YouTube in Brazil”, said Jefferies.
It added that “across the top 15 Brazil sites, visits are tracking up >600% YoY and >400% MoM through the first month of regulation” and that its “analysis suggests that the market has become more competitive post-regulation”.
Betano retained its grey market lead with c19% traffic share, “Bet365 has been displaced as #2 by Superbet with 14% share” and of the top 15 sites, “the web traffic share held by the top two has fallen from 61% pre-regulation to just 40% post-regulation”.
Jefferies also noted that Brazil generates c20% of Better Collective’s revenues and is Playtech’s largest live casino market, with LATAM representing 7% of Evolution’s overall group revenues