Ladbrokes students predict Grand National winner using science & data

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Ladbrokes has asked three UK student to find the 2015 Grand National winner by creating their own mathematical equation. Taking all different things into consideration whatever they deemed important, the students each created a formula stating what you should use and who you should be betting on this year. They took different factors into account including physical, environmental, psychological, and historical and stated which horse they are backing based on their theory.

Below is detailed breakdown of the three Ladbrokes students predictions:-

The first student is Laurie Barrow labelled the  ‘Equine Enthusiast’, who just so happens to be a veterinary science student. His equation takes historical wins, weight and ground type on the day into account and produces a formula revealing the 2015 Grand National as ShutTheFrontDoor. His formula supports Ladbrokes’ odds as Shut the front Door is currently favourite to win with odds of 7/1.

equine

Student number two is a mathematics whizz-kid and therefore our ‘Number Cruncher’ called Max Masters. His formula was the most elaborate formula we received. He started off by creating a form equation, giving points to each horse over the last 5 races. He also used the odds of the horse to win in his formula, worked out a % of victories in each grass condition type, and took the age, weight and number of wins the trainer received, to predict that based on Maths and Physics Rocky creek will be this year’s winner. At third favourite to win with odds of 10/1, Max’s formula is proving strong.

locallegend

And last but not least is ‘Local Legend’ Emma Winward who studies in Liverpool, which is of course home to Aintree. As a Vet student, Emma took a completely different approach to this challenge. Our Local legend took the average age of winners and runner uppers across 3 years, their average rating, and the average distance that the horse won over. She then took this and calculated a standard deviation using z scores to work out how much they deviated. Based on her finishing formula she claims that the odds are wrong and that based on Maths and Science Spring Heeled is this year’s winner. Based on Ladbrokes odds, Spring Heeled currently sits at 20/1 therefore odds suggest she has a low chance of winning. However, if her theory and equation is proven correct, The local student from Liverpool is looking at a big financial win!

rocky

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