Brexit Party tipped to gain majority as EU elections loom

With the UK European elections due to take place tomorrow, the newly-formed Brexit Party is tipped to gain the most seats with it being traded at 97 per cent on Smarkets.

The eurosceptic party, fronted by Nigel Farage, has shaken up the market for the ‘most seats’ in the UK European elections. Smarkets detailed that while the party was originally traded at 22 per cent on the exchange,  they’ve now reached 97% to get the most seats – pushing Labour down to 2% – their lowest price since we opened this market.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets commented: “The Brexit Party, despite having no members, no manifesto and no proposals of what they will do in the European Parliament, are set to storm the European Parliamentary elections with a 97 per cent implied probability of getting the most seats from the UK in the European Parliament market.

“The media-friendly approaches of both Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are paying off. A result of the attention, our markets are showing that both are strongly favoured to achieve their respective aims. The question remains whether other party leaders can break their hold on the news cycle, restrained as they are by manifestos and ideologies.”

Across Europe, the market has seen a number of major coalitions being formed to cement themselves into the European Parliament. Smarkets has shown that there has been systematic growth in money being traded towards the European People’s Party, which is now being traded at 93 per cent.

While markets have also shown that the implied probability for Tommy Robinson being elected as an MEP has taken a turn, with the ‘no’ contract dropping from 90 per cent to 76 per cent since the infamous milkshake-gate.

With recent news yet again turning towards a potential UK conservative leadership contest, Boris Johnson is currently front-runner, increasing his lead at the top of the market to 34 per cent implied probability. Dominic Raab, meanwhile, has jumped into second favourite at 17 per cent implied probability and Michael Gove dropping to third favourite at nine per cent.

Theresa May yesterday announced that she has come up with a series of amendments to her current Brexit deal to get it through parliament, including – most notably – allowing MPs to vote on a potential second referendum. This has ruffled some feathers among senior Conservative figures, but could also be just what May needs to stay in Number 10.