SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
SBC checks in on bookmakers’ nerves pricing the homestretch of matchdays of an enthralling Premier League 2023/2024 season.
With all outcomes yet to be decided, which team or final result has bookmakers restless, as punters place bets on a record-breaking end of season…
SBC: With just Six Premier League matchdays remaining, will all PL season 2023/2024 outcomes be resolved on the final day?
Chad Yeomans (Global Head of Communications and PR @ Betway): As far as winning the Premier League goes, it won’t be far away from going right the way down to the wire; but the run-in would suggest that Man City might be able to wrap it up a game or two earlier.
That outcome is largely based on the fact that Arsenal and Liverpool have a seemingly more difficult set of fixtures, with the former still to play a North London derby against Tottenham, a trip to West London to face Chelsea and a potentially tricky tie against Man Utd at Old Trafford.
Before the action starts this weekend, City are 2/5 favs to win another Premier League, so the likelihood is, if they continue in the form they’re in, they might just be able to seal it before the last game of the season which is a home tie versus West Ham United.
At the other end of the league, it looks all but done and dusted for Sheffield United and Burnley. There relegation from the Premier League is likely to be confirmed within the next couple of games if they fail to pick up any points and while there is a glimmer of hope for Luton, they will be relying on Everton and Nottingham Forest to drop points.
SBC: How is the end of 2023/2024 PL season shaping up, and what final outcome is ‘squeaky bum time’ for bookmakers?
Alistair Gill (UK Product Manager, Kindred Group): It’s been quite a rollercoaster season and until last weekend at least a title race that looked like going all the way to the wire.
With Manchester City now out of the Champions League and all their attention able to focus on the Premier League as current leaders it will take some serious slip ups for them not to be crowned champions once again!
From Kindred’s perspective, it isn’t a bad thing; Tottenham, Manchester United and Aston Villa were the three teams with some of the biggest liabilities built up through the season, so anyone but them from a book perspective!
Man City have seen over 50% of outright bets, but at average odds of 1.78 that actually comes out just about a profitable result. Next most popular are Liverpool and Arsenal respectively, and in honesty those both end up roughly a draw between us and the punters.
So we head into the final match rounds in a good position! Elsewhere in the relegation battle it is Luton as the main liability if they were to go down, but we cover that with positive books on Sheffield United and Burnley.
In the Top Goalscorer market we have one loser – Erling Haaland. With 72% of all bets placed on him it is the only result we don’t want.
We are hoping for some more goals from Alexander Isak, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer which would be incredible for the book – combined they make up 9% of all bets placed and any would give is a really positive margin.
All in all, an end of the season we can sit back and enjoy without having to worry too much about huge book swings!
SBC: So who will win the PL and is any bookmaker brave enough to offer an early pay-out?
Robert Ford (PR-&-Outreach Manager, Betfred): This is the ninth time that we’ve paid out on a potential Premier League title winner and we’re doing this believing that it’s inevitable that Manchester City will win their fourth Premier League title in succession.
“We enjoy the risk here at Betfred, and we’re so confident that Manchester City will triumph, that we’re prepared to offer our customers the chance to bet on Arsenal at 5/1 and Liverpool 7/1 to overthrow City, which are currently the best odds in the market respectively.
