Lee Richardson- EIG Berlin Report – World Cup 2014 Initial results, trends & observations.

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Lee Richardson Chief Executive of Gaming Economics

Lee Richardson Chief Executive of Gaming Economics opens a series of content, interviews and industry commentary building up to the EIG Berlin Expo (21-23 October).

In this two part  betting white paper, Richardson presents detail Gaming Economics betting analyses and observations regarding the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

A sports betting industry veteran Lee Richardson has held various senior management positions within numerous sports betting and igaming operators. Lee currently consults industry start-ups entering the sector, on key industry dynamics.

Gaming Economics is an independent gaming consultancy specialising in providing sound business guidance for operators, suppliers and investors within the international e-gaming and betting industry.

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FIFA World Cup Brazil 2014 – Event Overview

  •  This White Paper, prepared for EiG 2014, concentrates on analyzing the key betting-related results and observations for the FIFA World Cup 2014, which took place in Brazil between June 12th and July 13th 2014
  • 32 team format, 8 Groups of 4, with 64 scheduled games, played at 12 locations across 3 time-zones and with 4 primary game start-times (17.00, 20.00, 21.00 and 23.00hrs BST).
  • On the eve of the tournament, hosts Brazil were the general 3/1 favourites, followed by Argentina at 4/1, Germany at 6/1 and defending champions Spain on 13/2.

Gaming Economics – Brazil 2014 Initial findings

In-Play Impacts & Factors

  •  The previous event, held in South Africa in 2010, was the first global football event dominated by in-running betting (IRB), with an estimated 55% – 60% share of all bets struck on the event
  • During the subsequent 2012 UEFA Euro Championships, this share had risen to an estimated 65% – 70%
  • Accordingly, some analysts, ahead of this tournament, predicted a share of 70%+ for the 2014 event in Brazil

Tough Schedule

  • However, others, including Gaming Economics, highlighted the potential “anti-social” nature of the scheduled start times for UK and European audiences, and the possible dampening effect this might have in In Running Betting (IRB) activity, turnover and margin
  • Chart below shows the per-game 1X2 share of IRB, showing a  broad range of 32% – 80% and an overall estimated average of 58% across the 64 game tournament, making it broadly on a par with the 2010 event.

FIFA1

Performance Impact

Below Chart clearly highlights the relative performance of total per-game betting revenue as determined by kick-off time, with as much as 25% more revenue being wagered on games at the most popular starting slot (20.00hrs BST, Index 100) when compared with the least popular (17.00hrs BST).

FIFA2

Further Notes

  • This marked impact on betting revenue by kick-off times is certainly supported by the early TV viewing figures, which have been down as much as 21% in the UK when compared with the 2010 Finals.
  • Even the 2014 Final itself, played between the tournament second-and third-favourites, was watched by 5% fewer viewers than that in South Africa four years earlier

Part 2 of this report will be published on Friday 18 July

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Lee Richardson MBA Chief Executive – Gaming Economics

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Lee Richardson will be speaking on sports betting industry factors and impacts at the upcoming EIG Berlin Expo (21-23 October).

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