Polymarket has gone to court to appeal a €420,000 (£365,000) penalty issued by the Dutch gambling authority, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
At the start of 2026, the KSA officially blacklisted Polymarket for ‘offering unlicensed gambling services’ to Dutch consumers, warning its parent company Adventure One with financial repercussions if the prediction markets platform did not block access to its services locally by 17 February.
While Polymarket subsequently complied with the order, in May, the KSA notified Adventure One that it will still go through with its warning due to Polymarket officially withdrawing on 18 February.
The official notice was publicised by the gambling authority in June, with the KSA adding that it will now move towards recovery/enforcement actions as the penalty had not been paid by Adventure One.
Adventure One then responded, saying that it had already begun working on the block on 18 February, and that while the block testing phase ‘still allowed access to the service’, it was due to technical factors as the full block was still being rolled out.
“Adventure One QSS Inc. states that this is not negligence, but a known feature of the technology, and that the measures have been implemented as quickly and carefully as possible within the short grace period.”
The explanation was then rejected by the KSA, with Polymarket now taking legal action in the Hague to appeal the penalty, as revealed to news outlet FD.
Still, it is safe to say that interesting times await prediction markets in the Netherlands and Europe in general.
Just recently, a motion was submitted to the House of Representatives by Dutch MP Iem Al Biyati, proposing the creation of a separate framework to regulate prediction markets.
While it was turned down by State Secretary Claudia Van Bruggen due to the KSA’s explicit view that these offers constitute gambling, it is clear that there are some movements regarding the predictions sector happening at the highest level of Dutch politics.
Across Europe, most regulators have kept their doors closed to prediction markets.
But with Gibraltar adopting the world-first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, Malta also hinting at moving in that direction, and Kalshi noting at the SBC Summit that it is in active talks with key EU-level regulators such as the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), it appears that we are yet to see the end of prediction markets in Europe.
Predictions causing US policy rifts?
Both Polymarket and its biggest global competitor Kalshi originated in the US. There, the event contracts they offer are regulated on the federal level as financial instruments by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC).
However, this is not to say that US-based criticism of their regulatory designation is scarce. There is still a notable number of US gambling stakeholders who view prediction markets as a gambling offer.
Some of the biggest US states like New York, Arizona, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and others have openly rejected the financial labels used by prediction markets.
Meanwhile, the Executive Director of the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG), Heather Maurer, announced that she will be stepping down from her role on 16 October after 10 months of active duty.
While neither the NCPG or Maurer have given an official explanation, her departure comes months after the $2m partnership between the national gambling harm organisation and Kalshi.
The Ohio Casino Control Commission, the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling, and the Michigan Gaming Control Board also broke away from the NCPG following the announcement.
A recent case where a self-excluded US bettor allegedly lost thousands of dollars on Kalshi is now also raising questions about the platform’s commitment to problem gambling.
Prediction markets will need to balance this PR, whether good or bad, now more than ever if they truly see Europe as a viable route for expansion.
