Tracking the US Democratic Party leadership race, Smarkets Politics predicts that there will be ‘no Bloomberg Surprise’ as the DNC Primary heads towards its make-or-break ‘Super Tuesday’ ballot on Tuesday 3 March.
This Wednesday billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who has reportedly spent $500 million on campaign advertising, made his TV debut in Las Vegas challenging DNC 2020 suitors.
The TV debate would see DNC candidates lambast Bloomberg’s candidacy, labelling the billionaire as arrogant in his ‘attempt to buy’ the DNC’s presidential nomination.
“Bloomberg’s campaign, fuelled by his immense personal wealth and media empire, caused him to reach an all-time high of 31% (3.2 odds) prior to the debate. However, he was attacked from all angles last night by the other candidates, resulting in him losing considerable market confidence as his price decline overnight to just 15% (6.4 odds)” reports Sarbjit Bakhshi Smarkets Head of Political Markets.
Bloomberg’s dismal TV outing saw gains for all other DNC candidates, with Smarkets reporting an 8% gain for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders the market’s current frontrunner, trading at even odds of 2.0.
“Sanders has been leading our market since late January, and a good performance in last night’s debate has seen him continue to climb from 42% to 50% in just 24 hours” Bakhshi adds.
The DNC Primary enters a crucial stage in campaigning in which candidates will compete in this weekend Nevada Caucasus, followed by ‘Super Tuesday’ which sees 14 states cast their vote for ‘presidential ticket’.
On its current reading, the Smarkets exchange indicates that DNC voters will likely face the question of whether they want a 78-year old socialist or a 78-year old billionaire to challenge Donald Trump’s divisive Presidency.
“It seems socialist Sanders or billionaire Bloomberg may make more formidable adversaries for Donald Trump, as they can match the President’s media-manipulation tactics with their ability to steal headlines by expressing stronger views,” Bakhshi concludes.