Could X become an ex-channel for affiliates?

X, formerly known as Twitter, has long been a favourite among social media users, but recent developments in Brazil have left gambling companies to question its ongoing usefulness. Affiliate Leaders assesses how this legal decision will impact marketing strategies across the industry.

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News that X has been banned in Brazil has, understandably, sparked controversy and extensive debate among the social media community. 

The move resulted from a Supreme Court decision after the platform refused to comply with orders to remove seven anti-government commentators, which the government argued had contributed to ongoing political unrest. 

As part of the ruling, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes not only ordered internet service providers across the country to restrict access to the social media platform, but also criminalised its use via VPN networks.

And yes, you guessed right, CEO Elon Musk hit back at the decision. In recent days, the tech baron claimed that the platform had not been given enough information to justifiably action the request made by the government. As it stands, both X and the Brazilian government are at loggerheads, with a compromise looking unlikely any time soon. 

Far-reaching effect

While, on the surface, this decision might only seem to affect the social media users of Brazil, the ban of X across the South American nation could have negative implications for gambling affiliates operating within the country. 

It’s only been a few days since the Supreme Court decision was announced, but X’s monetisable daily active user count has already fallen from 250 million to 230 million – which equates to approximately 10% of the platform’s user base. Add to this the loss of around 5 million users in Europe earlier this year, and you can easily surmise that this doesn’t look good for X’s future.

This drop in users undoubtedly will translate into a significant slump in advertising dollars, which begs the question: what does this mean for operators looking to enter the market once Brazil finally regulates?

With Brazil’s market expected to go live on 1 January 2025, the country is already expected to become one of the largest players on the global gambling stage. So far, 114 operators have put themselves forward for a licence. But with each licence offering access to three skins or brands, the number of brands going live could reach 342. In short, this presents a mammoth of an opportunity for affiliates. 

Of course, social media is a hugely important tool for affiliates, with X often proving to be a very popular channel when it comes to engaging with bettors. In fact, the platform is among the most prominently used among Brazilians. Figures suggest that approximately 21 million people use X, making it the sixth largest market for the social media platform after the US, Japan, India, Indonesia and the UK.

More questions than answers

This ban on X will, undoubtedly, throw a spanner in the works for those operators looking to make their name known in what will soon be a hugely-lucrative market. 

Do gambling operators look to diversify their marketing budgets away from social media, and instead prioritise more ‘traditional’ campaigns such as TV and radio? Do they double down on alternatives such as Facebook, TikTok and Instagram? Does this heavy restriction on advertising make the Brazilian market any less appealing? Unfortunately, the answer to these isn’t quite as simple as a yes / no. 

But one thing is for certain: operators eyeing up this market will certainly be considering how best to pivot their marketing campaigns.

One worry that many affiliates and operators have expressed – a point that was highlighted by TipsterChat CEO Carlos Sanchez during this week’s SBC Digital: Affiliate Marketing day – is that the Brazilian court’s decision could potentially tempt authorities around the world to follow suit. 

In the last few years, countries including the UK have introduced restrictions on what content betting operators can use within their social media campaigns. While other markets such as Ontario have issued an outright ban on the promotion of gambling offers. Some social media owners have even tightened their own policies on the advertisement of gambling products – most notably Meta. 

What next?

It is worth noting that this isn’t the first time affiliates have had to quickly pivot their engagement strategies to comply with changes in regulations. 

Over the years, affiliates have become well versed in the art of compliance and adapting to legislative change. They have had to, purely out of necessity. This latest announcement just seems to be yet another hurdle in the affiliation journey.

But the Supreme Court decision is one that, from the outset, could be a huge blow for gambling businesses looking to expand their brand presence. It may well have long-lasting impacts on brands’ trust in the platform.

The likely next step is that Brazilians will flock to other social media apps, which has already been the case for microblogging platform Bluesky. From an operator perspective, we’ll probably see diversification in marketing strategies away from social media. 

And with regards to X’s future as a suitable platform for affiliates? We might have to dust off our crystal ball to find out the answer to that one.