Betting exchanges have cited a whirlwind weekend pricing ‘Storm Liz’, as once again speculation swirls around a Conservative Party mutiny against its leader.
Less than six weeks in office, PM Liz Truss is fighting for survival, as her chaotic economic recovery plan was ripped up by new chancellor Jeremy Hunt in an address this morning.
Short on friends and allies – having thrown former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng under the bus – Truss’ days in office could be numbered. This weekend media sources reported that Tory peers were submitting letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady and the 1922 Committee.
Truss must remain in office into 2023 to avoid becoming the shortest-serving Prime Minister in British history. However, Betfair cites that its Exchange customers are red hot on another PM departure by the end of the year.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Things aren’t looking good for Liz Truss at the moment, with almost 85% of the money matched on her exit date market being for her to leave Number 10 by the end of the year.”
“Before Friday’s new Chancellor announcement and the Prime Minister’s eight minute press conference, Truss was 3/1 to leave her role in 2022. However, those odds have now crashed into 4/5 and with a number of Tory MPs publicly coming out against Truss we anticipate that those odds will only get shorter as more make their feelings known.”
Although the PM has a ‘grace period’ of a year before a leadership contest can be triggered, Betfair maintains that Truss could well be forced to jump ship by party peers as polling and public confidence in the Conservative Party hits historic lows.
“Some of the latest polls project that if there was to be a General Election now, the Tories would win just four seats, so it’s no surprise to see that punters have backed a Labour majority into even money from a high of 12/1,” Rosbottom added.
“Despite that, a General Election anytime soon still looks unlikely, for a vote to take place between now and the end of the year is 14/1, while 2024 or later looks most likely at 2/5.”
Mirroring market trends, Smarkets Politics noted that weekend trading had seen Truss priced at odds on to be replaced as PM by the end of the year.
Despite a chaotic start to her premiership, Smarkets reports that Truss’ chances of a 2022 departure had stood at 27% but rocketed following the sacking of Kwarteng on Friday to 67% as of today.
As stands, Rishi Sunak is the current favourite to replace Truss as PM. Schadenfreude for the former Chancellor, who lost this summer’s leadership race to Truss, unable to win the Tory members’ grassroot support.
Acknowledged as a ‘safe hands appointment’, Chancellor Hunt has seen his prospects rise from just 1% to 20%. Other contenders named by Smarkets include Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who has risen up to a 16% third favourite according to current pricing, and Penny Mordaunt at 10%.
Smarkets Head of Politics, Matthew Shaddick, said: “The hoped-for calming effect of appointing Jeremy Hunt has yet to materialise, although it has propelled Hunt as second favourite to become the next PM.
“Rishi Sunak remains favourite to take over should Truss be removed as PM and now stands at a 37% chance. The other big mover over the weekend was Ben Wallace, moving up from 6% to a 16% third favourite. Penny Mordaunt is the other leading Conservative contender at a 10% chance.”