SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Polls have become the main feature of this General Election, but the betting markets are also gaining more prominence than in previous elections. With more access to information than ever before, the public are also expected to make more informed decisions when it comes to placing their bets on who will be leading the country on 8th May, or at least leading discussions to form a coalition government.
According to the 2015 Unibet Election Index:
- An estimated £100million is expected to be placed on this Election, 3 times more than in 2010 (which itself was a four fold increase compared to the 2005 campaign)
- Over the past 2 Elections, bookies have called results more accurately than pollsters
- There could be huge windfalls as this is the election of competitive betting with no overriding favourite to make it to No10
- a £10 bet on Lab/UKIP coalition could pay out £1000 (100/1)
- Bookies may see more being placed on Tories following birth of Royal Baby which normally gives a feel good factor to incumbent parties
According to Unibet’s Ed Nicholson, who has covered the past 5 elections: “Bookies are not trying to accurately predict the outcome on future events, they are merely reflecting millions of opinions generated in the form of bets and generating odds to make a profit on the result. This makes the bookies the best barometer of public opinion. Pollsters ask for opinions of a select sample of a few thousand people but there are no real consequences of people changing their mind. Laying a bet requires the punter to really put their money where their mouth is.”
Analysts believe that betting markets are becoming more than just a financial exercise and properly used should tell us what the future will hold across elections. This is based on the assertion that the collective wisdom of many people is greater than the conclusions of a few and that polls cover a much narrower demographic than the bookies.
Unibet – Bookies vs The Pollsters at Windsor Racecourse
