In defiance of the increasingly stern orders from the Spanish government, the campaign for a Catalonian independence referendum continues to gather momentum.
Located in the northeast of Spain with a population of 7.5 million and accounting for roughly 20% 0f Spain’s current GDP, the Catalonia province not only has its own language and culture, but it also has a longstanding history of campaigning to become an independent state. Led by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont, the province plans to host a self-determination referendum on 1 October.
In spite of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stating that he will “do whatever is needed, without relinquishing power” to stop the referendum taking place, separatist campaigners have persisted to give out ballot papers, remaining defiant that the referendum will go ahead on Sunday.
The Spanish government and High Court judges have ruled that the Catalan government has breached its national constitution by calling a referendum. Whatever the outcome (should voting go ahead) Spain will veto the referendum’s decision.
Currently, the ‘uncertainty’ around the vote and ‘what conditions it will take place under’ mean the referendum isn’t anticipated to be a major betting event. However, Ladbrokes and Coral have priced up the outcome of the controversial ballot, should it take place.
Matthew Shaddick head of political betting at Ladbrokes told SBC: “When we first issued odds back in July, we made a YES vote the 2/5 favourite, which implied it would have about a 75% chance of passing. YES is now a 1/16 shot, making it more like a 95% chance of winning. So, it doesn’t look all that competitive.”