Brazil unveils First Economic Snapshot of an unsettled Bets Regime

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance (MEF) has published the first economic insights into the country’s betting market under the nascent  ‘Bets’ regulatory regime, in effect since 1 January 2025.

During Bets’ first quarter of regulated online gambling activity, Brazil raised R$21.5m (€4m) in regulatory fees from licensed operators according to datasets published by MEF, and made available to the public via Brazil’s Transparency Law.

Monthly figures remained steady: R$6.8m in January, followed by R$7.2m, repeated in February and March. Representative of fees, Brazilian stakeholders await for the MEF to publish its official reports to gauge the GGR and the size of the market. 

These fees stem from a supervisory levy, calculated in proportion of each licensee’s operating and maintenance costs. Funds are transferred directly to the National Treasury, offering a financial tether between state oversight and commercial gaming rights. 

As SBC Notícias Brazil reported, this represents “the first measurable return on Brazil’s regulatory architecture.”

The MEF is also due to collect R$30m (€5.5m) in outstanding licensing fees, paid by operators to secure five-year licences to operate three betting brands. 

Licensing ordinances fall under Law No. 14.790/2023, which enshrines fixed-odds betting within Brazil’s legal framework and tasks the MEF with drafting detailed rules. In practice, this has meant prioritising consumer protection, marketing controls, and anti-money laundering measures.

GGR = carrots and caveats

For authorities the “real test lies in receipts over datasets”. Responding to a parliamentary request from Deputy Gilson Marques (NOVO/SC), the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) issued a technical note clarifying how Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) — commonly referred to Receita Líquida de Apostas — should be calculated, particularly in relation to promotional rewards.

The distinction is subtle but important. Withdrawable bonuses, those that can be cashed out, only count towards GGR once wagered. Non withdrawable incentives, such as in-platform free bets, are to be included once issued, even if players never use them. 

The SPA’s reasoning, quoted by SBC Notícias Brazil, is that the policy “aims to disincentivise excessive promotional giveaways” that may encourage reckless play.

The note warns that unchecked accumulation of non-withdrawable bonuses without timely reporting “would risk undermining the principles of responsible gaming enshrined in Ordinance SPA/MF No. 1.231/2024.” 

Transparency, it argues, must outweigh marketing expedience. The Ministry also confirmed it has no authority over tax policy, confining its role to regulatory definitions, not fiscal extraction.

To the frustration of licensed operators and suppliers, the Bets regime requires a definitive settlement on its application of tax charge. While a concluding legal basis is established, full tax enforcement and public reporting are still being phased-in during 2025.

H2 views Betano and bet365 as early winners

Though Bets comprehensive tax data remains under wraps, market analysts cite “data curation resources” to fill in the gaps of how the market is evolving. 

Making a bold pitch, iGaming intelligence agency H2 Gambling Capital, estimates that 86% of Brazil’s online betting market is already operating within the legal perimeter. 

Operators holding provisional licences account for the bulk of revenues at 70%, while 17% comes from those with full authorisation. Just 14% of GGR now flows through unregulated channels, a sharp contrast to the visible black market liability prior to 2025.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of the shift are Betano and bet365, which, according to SBC Notícias Brazil, together controlled roughly 40% of national GGR in 2024. Betano has now overtaken bet365 to become the market leader—remarkable given both firms are still trading under provisional status.

H2 expects most top-tier operators to transition to permanent licences within two years. This will likely erode what remains of the grey market and could usher in a more consolidated phase of industry development. Whether this leads to a duopoly, as some fear, or merely a maturing ecosystem will depend on future enforcement, tax policy, and competition oversight.