France: a casino market in limbo

France recently halted its plans to regulate online casinos across the country, opting to engage in further consultations with stakeholders to weigh up whether or not the regulation of iGaming is viable. Affiliate Leaders unpacks what this complete 180 from the French government means for the country’s gambling sector.

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It’s been a week of U-turns over in France with the country’s landmark iCasino regulations being put on hold despite initially receiving the green light from the government. 

The delay came after the French land-based casinos trade group, Casinos de France (CDF), successfully lobbied to halt the proposed amendments to the country’s online casino legislation. As a result, the market has found itself in regulatory limbo.

CDF had expressed concerns over competition; some predictions had suggested that the introduction of online casino legislation could result in a 30% dip in footfall to brick-and-mortar casinos. For CDF members, this could mean closures and job losses.

A complex affair

France’s Budget Minister, Laurent Saint-Martin, first announced the government’s decision to take its foot off the gas on Sunday 27 October.

Cited by the Renaissance party politician as being a measure to allow the country to evaluate the risks that iCasino legislation might pose – including job losses and long-lasting impacts on land-based casinos – the delay to regulations is a blow to affiliates who have been waiting for the golden moment that online casino would create.

Affiliates that were planning to capitalise on a regulated space must now sit tight while France debates the details. And that could take a while…

A market in limbo

Gambling regulations were first introduced across France in 2010, permitting online sports betting, horse racing and poker, but with a country-wide ban on online casinos. 

However, debates began earlier this year about changes which would allow iGaming brands to roll out their suite of casino products to French players. The proposed regulations included a suggested tax structure which would introduce a 27.8% GGR tax

The ongoing uncertainty around France’s regulated iGaming market has certainly left much of the industry in suspense. What does this mean? Will online casinos ever be regulated? How does the government plan to combat the black market?

The rise of the illegal casino market has, without a doubt, been a considerable factor in the government’s considerations to legislate iGaming. In fact, a recent study released by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) showed that unregulated operators generated between €748m and €1.5bn in GGR in 2023, representing 5% to 11% of the overall French gambling market.

Affiliates have, at times, been caught in a tough spot, unsure of how to operate within this legal landscape. This proposed legislation could give affiliates a pathway to legal and lucrative partnerships, not to mention the added security of working within a well-defined regulatory framework. 

By helping direct traffic to licensed platforms, they would play a critical role in establishing trust and brand recognition, especially given the market’s murky history with unlicensed operators. And while regulating the country’s black market wouldn’t completely eradicate the presence of unlicensed operators, it would certainly be a step in the right direction. 

As CDF’s CEO Philippe Bon has argued, online casino regulation is no straightforward matter. The proposed amendment, though paused for now, may resurface, but not without significant resistance. Affiliates would do well to keep this in mind. As seen this week, the French land-based casino sector holds powerful lobbying clout and isn’t afraid to use it.

Challenges lie ahead

While a new jurisdiction presents a chance for both affiliates and operators to line their pockets with new revenue streams, it appears that the road to success will be a long and winding one. 

The biggest challenge will be grappling for a share of the market. France has long been pitted as one of the most lucrative markets in Europe – the introduction of iGaming is only going to cause the competition to heat up even further. 

For operators, this’ll mean significant investment in marketing and brand awareness – which is where affiliates can prove helpful. However, if licensing is kept to a handful of well-established operators, affiliates may find themselves vying for space within a limited pool of partnerships. 

While this could mean greater revenue-sharing potential with the biggest names, it could also restrict competition, forcing some affiliates out of the market before the fun has even begun.

What next?

It’s no longer a question of ‘when’ the market opens, but rather ‘if’. But if a strange turn of events means that the government is willing to U-turn on its position again, affiliates could be the real winners of the market opening. 

Online casino operators will undoubtedly benefit from their expertise in navigating complex regulatory environments, building trust with users and driving engagement through localised content. Such expertise will be essential for those operators vying for market share during that initial gold-rush period of the market launching. 

Affiliates present a golden opportunity for online casinos to bridge the gap with French consumers, a dynamic that could prove particularly profitable in a country known for its gambling enthusiasm.

Until then, however, affiliates must adopt a watchful approach, mindful of the delicate negotiations at play. Should the market open, France could become one of the most significant growth opportunities in European iGaming, but for now, the ball remains firmly in the government’s court.