SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Betfair politics reports that France’s two-and-a-half hour Presidential TV debate (21 March) has favoured ‘En Marche’ candidate Emmanuel Macron who is now priced at 5/8 (61% chance of winning) to become France’s next leader.
Updating its ‘France 2017’ market, Betfair politics is still seeing plenty of support for far-right ‘Front National’ leader Marie Le Pen who has seen her odds slip to 7/2 (22% chance of winning).
Following the landscape changing victories of Brexit and Trump in 2016, political punters may see value in backing a Le Pen victory against the so-called ‘establishment’.
As France gears up for its first-round of Presidential Election ballots on 23 April, narrowing the playing field to two candidates, nearly all French polls have Macron and Le Pen tied on 26% favourability.
However, France’s two-stage election process will likely favour market leader Macron as the candidate will likely gain unified support from opposing parties trying to stop Le Pen from becoming ‘France’s Trump 2017’.
Commenting on the intriguing market which has reached nearly £8 million in matched bets, Betfair Spokesperson Naomi Totten, , said: “At the beginning of March, Macron had been trading at around 11/8 but has been well-backed over the past few weeks and traded at a low of 8/13 on Sunday night. The most activity has been on Macron and Le Pen in the past week with the pair accounting for more than 50% of all bets placed on the market.“
France 2017 – Betfair market breakdown
Next President – £7.9m Matched
- Emmanuel Macron 1.63 (5/8 or a 61% chance)
- Marine Le Pen 4.6 (7/2 or a 22% chance)
- François Fillon
6.4 (11/2 or a 16% chance) - Benoît Hamon 65.0 (64/1)
- Alain Juppé 510.0 (409/1)
- François Baroin 720.0 (719/1)
- Marine Le Pen 1.63 (5/8 or a 61% chance)
- Emmanuel Macron 2.9 (15/8 or a 34% chance)
- François Fillon 21.0 (20/1)
- Alain Juppé 140.0 (139/1)
- Jean-Luc Melanchon 200.0 (199/1)
- Benoît Hamon 220.0 (219/1)
